15 May 2019

 

Policies targeting key priority areas have been instrumental in China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years, according to HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker.

Mr Tucker was speaking at the sixth annual HSBC China conference in Shenzhen – a city that embodies the impact of targeted policies. Shenzhen’s Special Economic Zone was first established in the 1980s to stimulate private-sector businesses. It has helped the city grow from a small fishing village into “a bustling metropolis…and the birthplace and home of China’s leading tech companies,” Mr Tucker said.

Other policies supporting the country’s continued development include opening up China’s capital markets, the Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Mr Tucker.

The Greater Bay Area is designed to foster closer economic ties between Hong Kong, Macau and cities in mainland China including Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The Belt and Road Initiative supports increasing cross-border trade and investment between China and more than 100 other countries.

Meanwhile, moves to open up China’s markets mean that companies and investors from around the world will benefit from the country’s expansion, Mr Tucker said. He added that HSBC was ready to support its clients to make the most of these opportunities.

 

Read the full speech: How targeted policies have facilitated China’s opening up and development

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By Mohamed Salama, Country Head of Global Banking, UAE, Standard Chartered

 

SUMMARY

The UAE features prominently as a key component of China’s trade strategy in the AME region, as 60% of China-UAE trade is re-exported to Africa or Europe, thus supporting the Belt & Road Initiative’s mandate.

Please click HERE to read more.

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As a key link for the Belt and Road, Hong Kong boasts multiple advantages for doing business in Asia and beyond, featuring top-ranked international expertise in a full spectrum of legal, financial, and professional services, an independent judiciary, and a safe, stable, international, culturally rich and business-friendly environment that continually attracts top global talent.

 

Hong Kong enjoys an ideal location as a gateway to and from China. World-class construction and logistics engineering have improved and amplified Hong Kong’s natural advantages: its deep-water port has developed into one of the world’s busiest; and every major city in Asia lies within a five-hour radius by air, with flights departing and arriving at the world’s busiest cargo airport. The public transportation network is efficient, extensive and constantly expanding, enabling one of the most integrated social and commercial living spaces on the planet.

 

All this has come about thanks to Hong Kong’s vital role in connecting the Chinese mainland to the rest of the world, first through trade (still one of the city’s main economic engines), and ultimately, in its unique position as Asia’s international financial centre.

 

Geographically, Hong Kong is the spot where the inland Belt intersects with the maritime Road. It is also the anchor of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area, a macro-region with a population of close to 70 million and a GDP of US$1.5 trillion.

 

All of these advantages and strengths make Hong Kong a natural partner in the Belt and Road Initiative; but what really stands out is the solid legal and financial platform on the one hand, and the quality of Hong Kong’s professional services practitioners on the other.

 

In his opening remarks at the luncheon plenary of the Belt and Road Summit held in Hong Kong this June, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Paul Chan highlighted the breadth and excellence of Hong Kong’s professional services, saying that Hong Kong is “strategically positioned to serve as multiple service platforms for the Belt and Road.”

 

Chan elaborated on the scope of top professional services available, with application to nearly every phase of the typical Belt and Road infrastructure construction project: “Our world-class professionals in engineering, architecture, urban planning, surveying and consulting have the experience and knowledge to lead Belt and Road projects. . . . Legal, regulatory and political risks can undermine the feasibility of a project, and risks in construction and cost overruns will negatively impact a project’s profitability. Hong Kong’s deep pool of multicultural talent in law, accounting and finance can help manage these risks.”

 

Chan also touched on one of the most important and unique advantages offered: that Hong Kong is the perfect locale for resolving Belt and Road business disputes, with arbitral awards enforceable in more than 150 jurisdictions, including the Chinese mainland.

 

It is also important to have experts, licensed mediators and arbitrators with specialised knowledge and experience pertinent to the Hong Kong context. That means professionals like Mary BL Thomson, a mediator, arbitrator and solicitor with more than 20 years of experience with the Hong Kong Maritime Arbitration Group. Thomson pointed out that, for example, since 90% of all goods will be transported by sea, the Belt and Road Initiative would do well to study maritime disputes, which comprises an important set of precedents in commercial law.

 

William Wong, Chairman of the Committee on Arbitration and Chairman of the Committee on International Laws of the Hong Kong Bar Association, extolled the independence of Hong Kong’s judiciary as its greatest advantage in dispute resolution.

It is important that Hong Kong be specified in contracts as the venue for resolving potential disputes—the “champagne clause,” as explained by Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah, Secretary for Justice of the HKSAR. Hong Kong’s implementation of common law, along with its independent judiciary, foster confidence on the part of investors and stakeholders.

 

Cultural as well as systemic legal differences come into play when the parties making the deal or settling the dispute hail from different countries and cultures. A presentation by Amirali B. Nasir, Founding Principal of Nasirs and Vice President of the Law Society of Hong Kong, reminded Summit participants that Hong Kong has, significantly, modified its laws to allow Islamic financial instruments such as sukuks (Islamic bonds), and there is expertise here to advise companies operating in Muslim countries.

 

Hong Kong is a top centre for international dispute resolution. Belt and Road projects can benefit from agreeing to settling disputes on neutral ground, where impartiality is guaranteed and the quality of service is unparalleled. The arbitration and mediation industry in Hong Kong is comprised of highly-specialised and experienced professionals, practitioners and advisory organisations. In 2017, the most recent year for which data is provided, the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre (HKIAC) carried out 532 cases, of which 297 were handled by arbitration, 220 were domain name disputes, and 15 were mediation disputes, with an aggregate value of close to HK$40 billion. Cases ranged from corporate and finance, maritime and international trade to construction and professional services disputes.

 

On the subject of operating across different jurisdictions and legal systems, Hannah Ha, Partner at Mayer Brown, pointed out that one can easily find lawyers in Hong Kong with knowledge and experience in multiple jurisdictions, including those of Belt and Road countries.

 

Hong Kong is a centre of excellence for accounting and taxation as well. Apart from access to a large pool of practitioners familiar with multiple regions and systems, one advantage of establishing a contract in Hong Kong is the source-based taxation policy. “Hong Kong will not tax profits derived from outside Hong Kong,” mentioned Steven Sieker, Partner at Baker McKenzie. “If I’m in the money-lending business, I can lend to foreign entities, receive interest and pay zero tax on interest income.”

 

Hong Kong’s community of professionals is culturally and technically diverse, an advantage again when making deals and arranging transactions across the distances encompassed by the Belt and Road Initiative. Yet Hong Kong’s elite professionals are also known for their expertise and experience with the Chinese mainland. In addition, Hong Kong has close ties with the ASEAN countries, which are currently the largest recipients of Belt and Road-related investment.

 

From project planning, architectural consulting and engineering; dispute resolution, legal contract drafting and deal making; investment and financial services, auditing, accounting and tax consulting; to trade and logistics management, Hong Kong’s professions are stocked with world-class talent, with multicultural knowledge as well as China-related experience.

 

Avron Boretz, Kaya Consulting International

 

Click here for more event highlights and speaker insights from the Belt and Road Summit held in Hong Kong on 28 June 2018.  

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How to safeguard your business while expanding along the Belt and Road?

Five key questions to ask when signing Belt and Road contracts

 

By the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre (HKIAC)

 

China’s Belt and Road initiative is set to enhance investment along new economic corridors from Asia to Europe, which means a wealth of cross border business opportunities.

 

When capitalising on these new opportunities, businesses must however be mindful of potential risks as they prepare contracts. Concluding agreements between parties from countries with very different legal systems, political regimes and cultures, and at different stages of economic development, will inevitably present challenges – and a significant risk of legal disputes. Therefore, businesses must ensure that Belt and Road contracts include an effective dispute resolution clause, agreed upon by all parties. To do this, companies should consider the following five questions:

 

  1. Should an arbitration clause be included in the contract? Arbitration refers to a method of dispute resolution that results in a binding decision, or “award”, which is readily enforceable internationally. The process is conducted an internationally neutral setting. Arbitration is the most effective and commonly used means of resolving cross-border transactions. It allows parties to avoid the local courts of their counterparty and increase their chances of recovering any loss internationally. The right arbitration clause can help ensure the fair and efficient resolution of international disputes arising out of complex Belt and Road transactions. With an arbitration clause in the initial contract, organisations engaging in Belt and Road projects will have an important tool available to protect their business should a dispute arise.

 

  1. What kind of arbitration is right for the contract? An arbitration can be administered or ad hoc. Administered (or “institutional” arbitration) provides for a specialized, professional institution to help conduct and monitor the process. Institutions have tried and tested procedural rules available for parties according to which their case can be conducted. Administered arbitration is favoured for complex transactions and, in particular, where parties from Mainland China are involved as ad-hoc arbitration is not widely accepted in Mainland China. Ad hoc arbitration, on the other hand, is conducted without the involvement of a professional institution, so parties and arbitrators manage the process themselves.  

 

  1. Which institution should administer the arbitration? Parties should choose an independent institution with a history of success in managing international cases, which offers mechanisms to increase efficiency and reduce costs. Arbitration institutions with strong China expertise can better bridge the different legal and cultural practices between Chinese and foreign parties, and increase prospects for the enforcement of awards in Belt and Road-related international disputes. HKIAC is such an institution.

 

  1. What is the seat of arbitration and where should it be? The seat of arbitration determines which laws apply to the procedure of the arbitration and, crucially, the “nationality” of the arbitral award. Companies will want to choose a seat with an independent legal system and a strong enforcement track record for arbitral awards internationally. Hong Kong is ranked as the third[1] most preferred and used seat of arbitration worldwide and the most favoured seat outside of Europe. This is due to its world-leading arbitration legislation, neutrality, large pool of multilingual professionals, independent and sophisticated judiciary and the pro-arbitration stance that its courts consistently adopt. The fact that Hong Kong is simultaneously part of China and an autonomous special administrative region with a mature and reliable legal system based on the English system, makes it a particularly strong choice for Belt and Road contracts.

 

  1. How can the final decision from the arbitration be enforced? By virtue of an international convention known as the New York Convention 1958 to which over 150 countries are a party, arbitral awards are enforceable almost all over the world and certainly in all major economies. As a result, arbitration is a much better option than litigation in national courts for enforcement purposes (because domestic judgments cannot be easily enforced overseas). Awards made in Hong Kong are directly enforceable in more than 150 jurisdictions including Mainland China, and Hong Kong and HKIAC awards have an excellent track record of enforcement globally and one of the highest records of enforcement in Mainland China.

 

While the ultimate goal is to capitalise on Belt and Road business opportunities, businesses must also be ready to act in their best interests if disputes arise. With a well-drafted arbitration clause in the contract, companies will be better prepared and well positioned to reap maximum value from Belt and Road projects while protecting their business.

[1] Queen Mary University of London, 2015: http://www.arbitration.qmul.ac.uk/research/2015/

HKIAC.png

As one of the world’s leading commercial dispute resolution service providers, the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre (HKIAC) will play a leading role in resolving commercial disputes arising out of the Belt & Road Initiative (OBOR).

Specialising in arbitration, mediation, adjudication and domain name dispute resolution, HKIAC maintains one of the largest caseloads in the Asia-Pacific region, having handled over 9,000 commercial cases since its establishment in 1985.

OBOR is set to generate a significant increase in cross-border commercial opportunities between Chinese investors, their local partners and host governments in the OBOR region.  Such opportunities come with risk, HKIAC has a reliable and well-tested system for efficiently handling disputes arising under commercial contracts between OBOR parties.

HKIAC’s Administered Arbitration Rules have provisions that can be strategically used to control costs and increase efficiency for resolving construction, joint venture or project finance disputes between Chinese investors and their OBOR contractors, and expedited procedures are available for low value disputes or where urgent relief is required.

Protect your investment and mitigate risk in OBOR projects by selecting an HKIAC dispute resolution clause that will provide for the reliable resolution of disputes through settlement or a binding decision that is enforceable in over 156 countries worldwide. 

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This short video highlights the risk and types of disputes that can arise in projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, and the role of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre (HKIAC) in resolving such disputes.
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Belt & Road Summit 2018: Collaboration for Success
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Under the theme “Collaborate for Success” the third Belt and Road Summit illuminated major Initiative developments. Shinta Widjaja Kamdani of Indonesia’s Sintesa Group spoke of Hong Kong playing a vital role as her company developed an eco-tourism special economic zone. Meanwhile, Mark Moseley of the Global Infrastructure Hub said Hong Kong has a huge advantage for handling significant public-private infrastructure project risks. Speakers: Vincent HS Lo, Chairman, Hong Kong Trade Development Council Carrie Lam, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Manuel Pangilinan, Chairman, Metro Pacific Investments Corporation Melvyn Pun, CEO, Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd Shinta Widjaja Kamdani, CEO, Sintesa Group Mark Moseley, CEO, Global Infrastructure Hub   Related Links: Hong Kong Trade Development Council http://www.hktdc.com HKTDC Belt and Road Portal http://beltandroad.hktdc.com/en/
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Expert insights: Infrastructure investment trends on the Belt and Road

 

Belt and Road investment continues to flow to large infrastructure projects, but renewable energy is a growing and in-demand sector. Meanwhile, moves to attract private capital by promoting public-private partnerships (PPPs) have begun in earnest.

 

The Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect every quadrant of Asia with Europe, the Middle East and Africa over six inter-regional corridors, through construction of communications, power and industrial infrastructure on a massive scale. The projected total investment, scaled in trillions, has generated much expectation around the world.

 

With the estimates of projected spending varying from US$1 trillion to as much as US$8 trillion, the Belt and Road Initiative is easily the world’s leading programme of planned infrastructure construction today and in the foreseeable future. And all that building—roads, railways, ports, power plants and more—will certainly have a long-term, beneficial impact on local and regional economies beyond the cash flowing to contractors and the wages paid to workers.

 

Through 2018, more than 80% of Belt and Road project funding (some sources estimate up to 90%) has come from governments and multilateral banks, possibly due to the long investment horizons of infrastructure projects and the financial, environmental, political and legal risks entailed, particularly when it comes to projects in less-developed countries.

 

Since 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has been actively promoting PPP as a model for Belt and Road investment. All sides now recognise that, having kick-started the process, the involvement of private capital is key to sustaining Belt and Road development. Bernard Charnwut Chan, President, Asia Financial Holdings Ltd, summed up the rationale at the Belt and Road Summit in Hong Kong this June: “Government cooperation can prepare the foundations, but it’s up to the business community to build on them and bring projects to fruition.”

 

A more prominent role for PPPs could significantly alter the Belt and Road investment landscape. There are encouraging signs that the message is already beginning to reach its intended audience: an intensive training workshop in PPP and the Belt and Road was held in Hong Kong and Geneva, Switzerland in 2017, jointly organised by UNECE’s International PPP Centre of Excellence and two of the top universities in Beijing and Hong Kong.

 

Building private sector investor confidence will require more concrete changes in the Belt and Road ecosystem, however. Not the least of these will be moving towards higher standards of governance (a topic addressed positively in comments by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking last March in Paris), greater risk awareness and professional risk management, and a neutral venue for dispute resolution, with Hong Kong the leading candidate to take that role. One of the disincentives to private investment in the Belt and Road Initiative, however, has been a relative lack of bankable projects, as Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, underscored in his opening remarks as chair of the Risk Mitigation in Infrastructure Financing panel at the Belt and Road Summit.

 

More optimistically, Fang Qiuchen, Chairman of China International Contractors Association (CHINCA) observed that “investors are now the driving force [in the Belt and Road Initiative]. We need to be clear about the challenges and aware of the risks, not least political, but this is the time to grasp opportunities.”

 

In fact, many of the top Chinese infrastructure and construction companies are already listed in Hong Kong; and a Hong Kong government pilot bond grant scheme to offset bond issuer expenses will generate additional Belt and Road investment opportunities.

 

Another increasingly popular sector is clean and renewable energy, as Wang Jianping, Chairman of China Energy Engineering Group pointed out: “There’s a huge gap between supply and demand for electricity along the Belt and Road, so we see a bright future for power generation.” This demand, Wang explained, extends to renewable energy and new-energy projects such as hydro, wind, solar and biomass. These clean energy projects are well supported, developed in partnership with the Silk Road Fund and China Environmental Energy Investment, a private Hong Kong-based holding company.

 

Green finance is yet another trending area which offers some intriguing opportunities. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government is set to launch an extensive green bond programme aimed at promoting and supporting Belt and Road development, and to attract international investors to fund green projects through Hong Kong’s capital markets. “The development of green financing is as important as developing green products and services, bringing more diversity, liquidity and business to our capital market,” said Joseph Chan, Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the HKSAR Government.

 

As Belt and Road infrastructure projects reach completion, the investment picture will begin a shift to second-wave construction projects and related services. One of the early second-wave Belt and Road projects was described by Broad Homes Industrial Group Chairman Zhang Jian: “As economies develop along the Belt and Road, strong demand also grows for housing—in particular affordable and often urgent housing. . . . Housing will become in great demand, and it brings immediate benefit to communities.”

 

Besides industry, cultural and structural trends, the geography of Belt and Road investment trends warrants attention. While South and Central Asia have seen a net downturn in Chinese outward foreign direct investment over the past three years, the Middle East and Russia have enjoyed a modest uptick. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia offers a twist to the Belt and Road tale: facing a housing shortage, the kingdom is interested in partnering with Chinese developers, such as the Government of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region which signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi Ministry of Housing to develop the Al-Asfar outskirts in Al-Ahsa Province and build 100,000 housing units.

 

Finally, with their geographical and cultural proximity to China, the ASEAN countries have enjoyed the largest and steadily increasing concentration of Chinese investment—a trend that is likely to continue for some years to come.

 

Avron Boretz, Kaya Consulting International

 

Click here for more event highlights and speaker insights from the Belt and Road Summit held in Hong Kong on 28 June 2018.

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As the Belt and Road Initiative moves towards a public-private partnership-centred model and aims to attract more global investment, evaluating, mitigating and allocating risk will be key to project success.

With the most acute connectivity gaps in the developing countries of South and Central Asia (the Belt), and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa (the Road), the risks appear especially prominent. Additionally, large infrastructure projects do not always promise a direct return on investment; those that do may have an investment horizon of years or even decades. Not surprisingly, up to 80% of the investment in Belt and Road projects so far has come from government or multilateral organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the World Bank.

 

“We need to find ways to mitigate risk to encourage private capital in infrastructure,” observed Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Belt and Road Summit held this June in Hong Kong.

 

Many of the risks cited by expert panelists at the Summit—such as political, legal, financial and foreign exchange risk—are common to most cross-border infrastructure projects. As some of the region’s leading infrastructure investors and insurers pointed out, project success rests on assessing and mitigating risks, some of which are country- and industry-specific. Ian Chung, Senior Vice President of engineering firm AECOM, noted that Belt and Road projects can be quite complex, involving many parties; this, along with other factors, such as the relatively long term of investment, exposes some projects to financial risk.

 

To date, much of the discussion of risk and risk management on the Belt and Road has focused on the many larger, signature infrastructure projects that have characterised the first phase of the Initiative. But looking at the Initiative in its fullest extent, this may turn out to be somewhat narrow in scope. Consider the category of political risk, for example. Political risk means something quite different when applied to a mining project in Pakistan and a deep-sea port construction in Georgia. Pakistan highlights the need for far stronger risk assessment and management at every stage of every project in areas of high political volatility. Georgia, on the other hand, offers a more hopeful perspective on political as well as financial risk along the Belt and Road.

 

Perhaps with an eye to geopolitical concerns (but through a competitive bidding process), Georgia awarded the contract to plan and build the Anaklia Deep Water Black Sea Port to a US-backed consortium. Yet, Georgia, having recently signed a free trade agreement with Hong Kong, has all along defined the port project as a potentially important connector for Chinese trade with Europe. Along with several other major Belt and Road infrastructure projects in the Central Asia/Eastern European region, Anaklia sends a strong message that the Initiative is ultimately about extending cooperation and connectivity to any partner willing to embrace the vision.

 

Georgia is one of the several transitional economies along the Belt and Road with a similar risk profile. In the next phase of Belt and Road development, we can expect to see more projects based in these countries (whether in Central Asia, ASEAN, the Middle East or Eastern Europe) backed by both government and private capital, with multiparty participation in planning, finance, construction and operation.

 

In the difficult terrain of Pakistan and the more business-friendly confines of Georgia alike, reducing exposure, managing and sharing risk are equally important to the success of Belt and Road projects. The question, then, is where will the necessary expertise come from?

 

To begin with, Belt and Road project contractors and funders must be proactive about risk management. This begins with assessment, often requiring a close-up evaluation of local conditions and practices, with particular attention to legal, compliance and political risks—the so-called “preventable risk.” However, as Hannah Ha, Partner at Mayer Brown, emphasised in her remarks at the Belt and Road Summit, Chinese companies might not necessarily be familiar with local laws and cultures, which can leave them exposed in multiple areas when operating abroad.

 

It’s not that Chinese companies lack risk awareness: a 2016 Deloitte survey of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) found that Chinese SOEs identified “risk control” as one of the top three challenges they face in overseas environments. Rather, Chinese business culture has traditionally treated risk management more as a function of personal networks and connections, and are now looking to the insurance industry to provide the requisite professional expertise. Chinese insurers, in turn, are responding to this demand, and are working to develop the sorts of sophisticated loss prevention and compensation products that Belt and Road projects require.

 

“Insurance companies will look at risk in a different way than a construction company would look at risk,” noted Liu Shihong, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Taiping Reinsurance Company Ltd. Insurers will look at multiple categories of risk, and have the tools and experience newcomer companies lack to devise appropriate management and mitigation strategies.

 

Insurance industry experts who spoke at the Summit felt that the Initiative holds considerable long-term revenue potential. Elsewhere, UK and Chinese insurers have been in discussion on closer cooperation on the Belt and Road while ASEAN insurers are actively exploring ways to tap new Belt and Road opportunities. Overall, Swiss Re estimates that the Initiative, directly and indirectly, “could generate up to US$23 billion in commercial insurance premiums by 2030,” as cited by Bryce Johns, Group Head of Insurance at HSBC, at a recent Belt and Road Initiative insurance conference in Singapore.

 

Speakers at the Hong Kong Belt and Road Summit agreed, however, that this potential remains largely untapped. Franz-Josef Hahn, Chief Executive Officer of Peak Re, suggested that this owes partly to low levels of collaboration across the region that stems the flow of analysable data. With deeper knowledge of conditions, insurers would be better able to offset risk exposure.

 

For infrastructure projects, he added, “Belt and Road stakeholders should be aware that once a project is completed there are also operational risks.” Revenue shortfalls, foreign exchange restrictions, expropriation and other political risks, even environmental issues can all affect returns. Hahn added that the expertise available in Hong Kong could save clients time, costs and reputation.

 

Since even the most thorough due diligence and the most expert risk assessment cannot anticipate all contingencies, there is an acute need for insurance and risk allocation that take account of local conditions and business structure—especially in the case of public-private partnerships for Belt and Road projects. Companies and partners need to be aware of what is and is not covered; for example, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd is involved with infrastructure projects, and insures political and credit risk, inability to perform, and other risk categories in emerging markets. Notably, Zurich and other insurers do not always cover dispute risk. But given the great number, scale and variety of projects on the Belt and Road, disputes will happen. Preparing for the possibility of arbitration should be baked into the risk management strategy of every project. According to Vincent Connor, Partner, Pinsent Masons, a dispute resolution clause must be a priority for any contract and, he emphasised, “The best seat for resolution is Hong Kong.”

 

There are also notable advantages to setting up a captive insurer in Hong Kong, due to its open economy and deep pool of expertise. A captive insurer can be structured to allocate risk among subsidiaries and associates, which would be particularly useful for complex Belt and Road projects with unique sets of risks. Andrew Chow, Chief Risk Officer at Sinopec Insurance Ltd pointed to captive insurers as being an ideal choice for mainland SOEs and other large organisations.

 

The Belt and Road countries run the gamut of economic development. And while infrastructure connectivity is only one of the five cooperation priorities, it remains the core building block of the Belt and Road Initiative, with an expected US$5 trillion to be invested by 2030. To develop bankable projects that can attract private capital, risks should be better assessed and managed. Understanding and operating in this complex environment requires experience, well-tested practices, but also creative and flexible approaches. The Belt and Road Initiative is, increasingly, an appealing target for many categories of investors. Belt and Road projects and investors would do well to seek the help of risk management professionals—consultants, insurers, legal dispute resolution experts and others—to help them navigate through the hazards and reap the rewards.

 

Avron Boretz, Kaya Consulting International

 

Click here for more event highlights and speaker insights from the Belt and Road Summit held in Hong Kong on 28 June 2018.

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內容摘要

2017年，粵港澳大灣區（大灣區）首次被納入《政府工作報告》，提倡推動內地與港澳深化合作，研究制定大灣區城市群發展規劃，發揮港澳獨特優勢，提升在國家經濟發展和對外開放中的地位與功能。自此，大灣區建設正式成為國家級發展戰略。隨著粵港澳的規劃即將出台，大灣區城市群在亞洲地區的角色及功能受到廣泛關注，特別在中國與東盟經貿關係愈見重要的背景下，粵港澳城市群有望透過大灣區建設與東盟十國加強經濟合作，成為亞洲區內兩大增長引擎。

 

粵港澳大灣區與東盟的經濟概況

從宏觀數據分析，粵港澳大灣區與東盟兩大區域經濟各有不同特色，顯示雙方有廣闊的空間發揮互補優勢。

首先，東盟有龐大的市場規模。2016年，十個成員國GDP總量達到2.56萬億美元，是繼美國、中國、歐盟及日本後的全球第五大經濟體。此外，東盟擁有豐富的天然資源及生產要素，區內面積約450萬平方公里，人口總數高至6.3億人，其中超過一半是30歲以下的年青階層。由於東盟成員國發展步伐不一，區內的人均收入相對不高，2016年整體名義人均GDP約4,000美元，而且其差距亦較大。

至於粵港澳大灣區，整個城市群包括廣東省9個城市（廣州、深圳、東莞、惠州、肇慶、佛山、中山、珠海及江門）及香港和澳門兩個特別行政區。大灣區總面積約5.6萬平方公里，2016年GDP總量1.39萬億美元，人口總數約6,800萬人。大灣區的市場規模相對較東盟為小。

然而，大灣區城市群的經濟發展較為成熟，區內居民一般有較高的收入，2016年名義人均GDP約20,400美元，是東盟的五倍，擁有消費能力較高的中產階層。另一方面，大灣區是中國東南部的主要進出口基地，2016年全區商品貿易總額接近1.9萬億美元，佔其GDP比重達到137%（2016年東盟對外對易總額為2.2萬億美元，佔其GDP比重87%）。因此，大灣區市場有潛質成為東盟商品的主要出口增長點。

值得一提，粵港澳大灣區和東盟過去都有較高的經濟增長。在大灣區城市群中，廣東省9個城市過去五年的實質GDP增長普遍維持在8%水平以上，而香港及澳門兩個特區的經濟發展成熟，其增長相對較慢。整體而言，預期大灣區未來可保持約6%的經濟增長。東盟方面，區內GDP增長過去五年穩定在5%水平。隨著東盟逐漸形成龐大、穩定的內部消費市場，加上各成員國的國際競爭力近年都得到大幅提升，估算東盟中期經濟增長仍可保持在5%左右。

 

粵港澳大灣區與東盟的宏觀概況

2016年數據 粵港澳大灣區 東盟
GDP (US$ bn) 1,387.7 1,387.7
人口 (百萬人) 68.0 634.5
名義人均GDP (US$) 20,400 4,034
進出口貿易 (US$ bn) 1,900 2,236
地區面積 (平方公里) 56,000 4,490,212

資料來源：CEIC、ASEAN Secretariat，中銀香港經濟研究

 

東盟對接大灣區形成綜合製造業供應鏈

根據發改委和粵港澳三地政府的框架協議，大灣區建設的一項計劃是把廣東構建成為科技、產業創新中心和先進製造業基地，實現產業向高增值的方向發展。在發展創新及先進製造業的戰略下，廣東將推進產業的升級轉型，集中投放資源於高技術研發、產品設計、裝備製造、測試、核心零件生產等高端價值鏈活動，並把勞動密集型製造業逐漸外移（例如：紡織、服裝、玩具、傢具及零件組裝等生產活動），這趨勢將為東盟帶來大量新機遇。

由於香港及澳門有超過90%經濟活動屬於服務業，大灣區製造業活動主要集中在廣東九市，其中東莞、佛山、江門、惠州、中山是不同商品的重要生產基地。根據大灣區的經濟結構組成，製造業一直以來對其經濟貢獻約三分之一。然而，自2011年開始，大灣區製造業對整體經濟的權重連續多年下降，由35.8%跌至2016年的33.2%，主因是製造業的增速不及第三工業，說明區內經濟正出現結構性調整。

資料來源：CEIC，中銀香港經濟研究

事實上，多項因素正推動大灣區製造業朝較高增值轉型發展。首先，工人成本不斷上漲，2016年廣東製造業工人的月均工資達到784美元，比多個新興市場國家為高；第二，新一代年青勞動力的學歷及文化程度較上一輩高，他們對工作條件、工資待遇及事業發展的要求較高，不願意從事勞動密集型的傳統製造業；第三，國內其他城市的工資及生活條件急起直追，這吸引外來人員回鄉就業，令廣東出現勞動力回流的跡象。此外，多年的高速增長令廣東的土地價值趨升，工業用地及工人居住的成本持續上升，令製造業的勞動力供應進一步緊張。

東盟擁有豐富的土地資源及龐大的人口紅利，而且地理上鄰近粵港澳大灣區，加上中國內地及香港都與東盟簽署自由貿易協定，這使得東盟成為大灣區製造業走出去的理想地。目前，東盟多個成員國仍有較高比例的農業人口，其中越南、緬甸及老撾有超過四成人口從事農業，整體有超過2億農民。隨著農業科技進步及城市化發展，東盟將釋出更多勞動力供應。在大灣區與東盟形成區域性供應鏈的過程中，大灣區企業可向產業的高價值領域發展，東盟則可受惠於製造業投資所帶來的工廠職位，提升民眾的收入及技術水平，令雙方的合作達至互利共贏。

資料來源：World Bank，中銀香港經濟研究

 

大灣區與東盟具備物流貿易中心的優勢

大灣區與東盟的共同優勢是其地理位置優越及擁有良好的交通基建。根據聯合國《2017年海洋運輸回顧》報告，在全球貨櫃吞吐量前40大的港口中，大灣區及東盟合共佔有10席，其中新加坡、深圳及香港更排名第二、第三及第五。此外，國際機場協會發布全球最繁忙的20大機場名單上，香港、廣州、雅加達及新加坡機場在總客運量分別排名第八、第十三、第十七及第十八，而香港更在總貨運量排名第一。這些數據不單說明大灣區和東盟的對外貿易活動十分活躍，同時突顯出雙方作為區域物流中心的樞紐地位。

大灣區建設的重點合作領域之一是要推進基礎設施互聯互通，特別是在交通基建方面，旨在構建高效便捷的現代化綜合交通運輸體系。大灣區內多個新落成的大型跨境項目（港珠澳大橋、廣深港高鐵、粵澳新通道）將可配合現有港口、機場、高鐵及高速公路網絡，令國際與中國市場的連結得到提升。再者，大灣區內需市場的增長前景樂觀，其中產階層不斷壯大。這些條件有助於大灣區發展成為中國與東盟接軌的經貿平台。現時，大灣區和東盟在物流方面有空間作進一步合作，例如：雙方主要的國際港口及機場可開闢新航線或增加航班數目，以促進大灣區與東盟之間貿易、旅遊及投資等商業活動。

另一方面，大灣區粵港澳三方可參考東盟推動自由貿易的創新措施。自2018年起，東盟的五個成員國印尼、馬來西亞、新加坡、泰國和越南開始實施貿易單一窗口，並接受成員國以電子方式交換產地來源證。東盟單一窗口的優點是透過建立共同的海關平台，使得貨物報關流程得以精簡化、標準化及一體化，為企業減低交易成本，從而提高東盟整體的貿易競爭力。大灣區涉及內地九個城市和兩個特區，粵港澳可考慮東盟單一窗口的模式，以解決制度不一的限制，令區內的貿易活動得到最大的便利。

 

大灣區可發揮基建融資功能，配合東盟的資金需要

東盟的基建發展一直未能趕及其經濟迅速增長的步伐，令不同基建及公共服務出現嚴重供給缺口。亞洲開發銀行指出，東盟每年平均需要投資2,100億美元，才能滿足區內的基建需要。

多年來，東盟的基建投資缺乏增長主要是受著兩大因素所致。首先，政府財政不足支持興建基礎設施的資金需要。東盟成員國雖然有充足的外匯儲備，而且其政府債務比率一般比其他新興市場為低，但1997年金融風暴的經驗令成員國嚴守財政紀律，使東盟政府用於發展基建的財政資源受到制約。其次，基建項目融資有別於其他金融資產類別，其規模大、投資年期長、風險因素多，因此可投資（investable）或可貸款（bankable）的項目需要相當高的專業要求，涉及領域包括：項目審核、設計、營運、建造、法律、保險、風險管理、企業財務管理等。東盟缺乏investable的基建項目令私人投資難以就風險及回報進行詳細評估，使其未有利用環球低息流動性大舉投資東盟項目。

大灣區的對外定位是培育國際合作，發揮城市群的獨特優勢，以推動一帶一路建設。其中，香港是國際金融、專業服務及仲裁中心，廣東省是內地企業、承建商及資金的集結地，這些優勢可協助大灣區打造成為東盟的海外基建融資中心。透過政策上的相互協調及合作，大灣區可開拓基建項目融資的相關產業活動，包括：提供全面的基建評估服務、解決基建項目風險及回報不對稱的問題、就不同階段的基建項目提供融資建議、發揮中介作用等，這些功能將有助東盟市場與內地及國際投資者進行對接。可見，大灣區的專業人才及平台角色已具備良好基礎，為東盟解決投資不足的問題，使基建資金得以到位。

 

大灣區與東盟有潛質共同發展創新科技

隨著資訊科技發展日新月異，大灣區城市群與東盟成員國可突破雙方在發展水平及人均收入的差異，在創新科技及數字經濟方面加強合作，以進一步發揮各自市場的人才資源及市場規模。

近年，流動互聯網及智能手機在東盟日漸普及化，為區內初創企業帶來大量增長空間，使其規模不斷壯大，並向國際市場擴張業務。享負盛名的初創企業包括：召車平台Grab及Go-Jek、電商平台Lazada及Tokopedia、一站式旅遊服務網站Traveloka、時裝網店Zalora、拍賣平台Carousell等，部份企業更已在香港及內地開設據點，說明東盟初創企業的實力不容小覷。

大灣區建設的一項合作目標是要發展創新和科技事業。在創科領域上，大灣區和東盟可推動多方面合作，以提高雙方的效率及培育經濟增長的技術元素。首先，雙方可建立一個創新資訊平台，透過舉辦研討會、企業互訪、投資配對、工作坊等活動，促進業界的交流及資源共享；第二，雙方可共同推出研究合作項目，以協助雙方企業抓住數字經濟轉型所帶來的增長機遇，例如：中小企業可如何利用電子商貿平台擴充其業務版圖、增加外國買家對自身產品或服務的認識；第三，由於大灣區和東盟兩大內部市場都面對著邊境及制度不一的問題，令初創企業的跨境發展受到限制。雙方可加強創科政策交流，就電子商貿徵稅、法例監管、網絡安全、知識產權、個人資料保障、資金流動等議題進行溝通及分享經驗，為企業營造有利於創新及科技發展的營商及監管環境。

總括而言，粵港澳城市群與東盟成員國都擁有良好的宏觀發展條件及較佳的增長前景。在一帶一路國際合作及大灣區建設的助力下，雙方可在區域製造業供應鏈、物流及貿易、基建融資、創新及科技等領域深化合作，以達致優勢互補，實現協同發展。

 

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By Philip Panaino, Regional Head, Transaction Banking, Africa & Middle East, Standard Chartered

SUMMARY

With the Belt and Road initiative fostering financial cooperation and trade in Africa, it makes economic sense for countries along the modern “Silk Road” to use the Chinese currency. The deepening trade relationship between China and Africa clearly points to a long-term story in which the RMB will play a more strategic role in facilitating cross-border trade.

Please click HERE to read more.

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