Clear route to recovery

By Mukhtar Hussain, Head of Belt and Road Initiative and Business Corridors, Asia-Pacific, HSBC

Belt and Road Initiative offers solid framework for countries big and small to overcome the economic damage caused by pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused a crisis for every economy. At the same time, it has also created an opportunity for the Belt and Road Initiative to prove its value as an international partnership that serves the international good.

Amid a fragmented global response to the virus, this network of 138 countries is uniquely positioned to channel trade and investment to developing countries that lack the resources to revive their own economies.

China cannot do this by itself, though: no country can. If the initiative is to deliver on its potential to support global recovery, it must be a collective effort. It must also live up to the high standards it has set itself for transparency and sustainability.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that some US$9 trillion of fiscal stimulus has been announced in response to Covid-19, but the Group of 20 economies account for US$8 trillion of that.

For decades, globalisation has delivered greater prosperity and better living standards to countries across the developing world. Investment in infrastructure allowed supply chains to flourish and boosted countries’ international trade. Greater trade led to greater employment and wealth creation.

This has been China’s development formula for the last 40 years. In that time it has transformed itself from one of the world’s poorest countries into a major manufacturing base, investment destination and export market.

It is no surprise, then, that international trade and investment are the DNA of the Belt and Road Initiative. This is also what makes it so important today. There can be no global recovery, especially for developing countries, without a recovery in the cross-border flow of capital, goods and services.

There is no equivalent as a network for these flows. According to HSBC Global Research, the initiative involves some 1,800 projects in countries that account for 40 per cent of the world’s population.

Estimates of the scale of investment already mobilised through the initiative since it launched in 2013 range from US$120 billion to US$575 billion, or even more.

It has established pathways for private capital and trade to follow government investment, and has evolved over the past seven years from a heavy focus on energy and infrastructure development to also encompass manufacturing and even services.

I have seen for myself how investment under the plan’s umbrella, whether in ports or auto manufacturing, can help a local economy connect with international markets, boost businesses and generate jobs.

Leveraging the initiative for the benefit of developing countries, however, will depend on its being truly international, high quality and sustainable.

It must function as an international network and not as a “China club” to increase its positive impact. It is encouraging, for example, that at least 14 countries have signed cooperation agreements with China that allow businesses from both countries to collaborate on projects in a third market.

High standards will be critical. The initiative has created well-documented concerns about debt sustainability and the transparency and viability of projects.

Responding to these concerns at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation last year, China made clear it should be “open, green and clean” and released a debt sustainability framework for projects.

Delivering on these commitments will be vital.

Much has been said about the potential for emerging economies to become caught in “debt traps”. However, China would surely prefer its loans to developing countries be serviced and repaid, making it rational for this lending to be structured accordingly.

As the Covid-19 pandemic hits government finances across the developing world and calls grow for foreign creditors to forgive debt, though, it would also make sense for China to continue showing flexibility in restructuring existing loans where necessary.

But it is not logical that China should want to be the sole financier of the initiative, in spite of the country’s deep financial resources. Indeed, it is very much in China’s interests to ensure projects associated with it are affordable and commercially sound.

That reduces risk for its state-owned lenders, as well as giving projects a better chance of being funded by private capital. Likewise, it will not serve China or, in the long term, anyone else if energy and infrastructure projects along the initiative’s planned routes lock in high carbon emissions.

As a cosmopolitan, high quality and sustainable network for investment and trade flows, the Belt and Road Initiative can make a vital contribution to the global recovery. For capital-constrained emerging economies, it may be the best hope for a swift revival.

More articles from The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

09 Jul 2019 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   Friction over trade between the world’s two largest economies naturally captures the attention of the business and investment community. The fact that cross-border trade within Asia is already much bigger than Asia’s exchange of goods and services with the U.S. or Europe makes fewer headlines, but is no less important.   It begs the question of what kind of networks, relationships and institutions will shape the future of international trade – and the answer to this question is beginning to emerge.   In partnership with China, which we expect to become the world’s biggest economy by 2030, a growing number of countries are rejecting economic isolation and beginning to work together to develop a new kind multilateralism.   While this process is in its infancy, I believe that a more collaborative approach to connecting economies tha
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   Friction over trade between the world’s two largest economies naturally captures the attention of the business and investment community. The fact that cross-border trade within Asia is already much bigger than Asia’s exchange of goods and services with the U.S. or Europe makes fewer headlines, but is no less important.   It begs the question of what kind of networks, relationships and institutions will shape the future of international trade – and the answer to this question is beginning to emerge.   In partnership with China, which we expect to become the world’s biggest economy by 2030, a growing number of countries are rejecting economic isolation and beginning to work together to develop a new kind multilateralism.   While this process is in its infancy, I believe that a more collaborative approach to connecting economies tha
24 May 2019 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
15 May 2019   Policies targeting key priority areas have been instrumental in China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years, according to HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker. Mr Tucker was speaking at the sixth annual HSBC China conference in Shenzhen – a city that embodies the impact of targeted policies. Shenzhen’s Special Economic Zone was first established in the 1980s to stimulate private-sector businesses. It has helped the city grow from a small fishing village into “a bustling metropolis…and the birthplace and home of China’s leading tech companies,” Mr Tucker said. Other policies supporting the country’s continued development include opening up China’s capital markets, the Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Mr Tucker. The Greater Bay Area is designed to foster closer economic ties between Hong Kong, Macau and cities in mainland China including Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The Belt and Road Initiative supports
15 May 2019   Policies targeting key priority areas have been instrumental in China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years, according to HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker. Mr Tucker was speaking at the sixth annual HSBC China conference in Shenzhen – a city that embodies the impact of targeted policies. Shenzhen’s Special Economic Zone was first established in the 1980s to stimulate private-sector businesses. It has helped the city grow from a small fishing village into “a bustling metropolis…and the birthplace and home of China’s leading tech companies,” Mr Tucker said. Other policies supporting the country’s continued development include opening up China’s capital markets, the Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Mr Tucker. The Greater Bay Area is designed to foster closer economic ties between Hong Kong, Macau and cities in mainland China including Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The Belt and Road Initiative supports
01 Sep 2017 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited In the wake of more isolationist political thinking in the West, with many developed economies turning inward, China is reaching out, seeking stronger trade and investment links with its economic partners. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is a prime example of this reaching out policy. Under the initiative, China aims to trigger demand for materials and goods at home by investing in strategic infrastructure projects abroad, growing economic ties along its old Silk Road to Europe and along newer maritime links in and around Asia and as far away as Africa, covering all potential points in-between. At its heart, the plan is to enhance global supply chains primarily through debt-financed infrastructure projects, across more than 60 countries. China expects annual trade with these countries to be worth US$ 2.5 trillion within a decade [1] – up from US$ 1 trillion in 2015
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited In the wake of more isolationist political thinking in the West, with many developed economies turning inward, China is reaching out, seeking stronger trade and investment links with its economic partners. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is a prime example of this reaching out policy. Under the initiative, China aims to trigger demand for materials and goods at home by investing in strategic infrastructure projects abroad, growing economic ties along its old Silk Road to Europe and along newer maritime links in and around Asia and as far away as Africa, covering all potential points in-between. At its heart, the plan is to enhance global supply chains primarily through debt-financed infrastructure projects, across more than 60 countries. China expects annual trade with these countries to be worth US$ 2.5 trillion within a decade [1] – up from US$ 1 trillion in 2015
21 Jul 2017 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
By Gordon French, Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia Pacific, HSBC Perhaps it’s inevitable that interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative tends to revolve around the railway lines, ports and highways that will be constructed in its name. These are the most visible manifestations of the “Belt and Road,” and they evoke beguiling images of the ancient land and sea routes along which silk was once transported from Xi’An to St Petersburg, or tea from Guangzhou to Rotterdam. But sometimes it is the financial dimension of infrastructure in Asia that stands out – because of the sheer scale of what is required. The Asian Development Bank expects emerging Asia to need about US$26 trillion of infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030. That amounts to US$1.7 trillion a year – and that’s just in Asia, while the Belt and Road encompass Africa and Europe as well. [1] Financing this colossal need for transport, telecoms and energy infrastructure across more t
By Gordon French, Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia Pacific, HSBC Perhaps it’s inevitable that interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative tends to revolve around the railway lines, ports and highways that will be constructed in its name. These are the most visible manifestations of the “Belt and Road,” and they evoke beguiling images of the ancient land and sea routes along which silk was once transported from Xi’An to St Petersburg, or tea from Guangzhou to Rotterdam. But sometimes it is the financial dimension of infrastructure in Asia that stands out – because of the sheer scale of what is required. The Asian Development Bank expects emerging Asia to need about US$26 trillion of infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030. That amounts to US$1.7 trillion a year – and that’s just in Asia, while the Belt and Road encompass Africa and Europe as well. [1] Financing this colossal need for transport, telecoms and energy infrastructure across more t
27 Jun 2017 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
By Stuart Tait, Group General Manager and Regional Head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific With protectionism threatening to dim Europe’s economic lights, Southeast Asia – fuelled by its nation-building infrastructure activity - could be the commercial catalyst that European corporates need. --------- If a spending deficit of US$1.2 trillion in six key Asian economies and a rising tide of protectionist rhetoric in Europe don’t seem the most promising combination of business prospects, think again. Add in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, and together they make a compelling case of the potential for a multi-year boom in investment and construction that will create entirely new economic ecosystems. Belt and Road at its most basic is a strategy to build the transport links and logistics capacity to boost the flow of trade between China and more than 65 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe to an estimated US$2.5 trillion annually in the co
By Stuart Tait, Group General Manager and Regional Head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific With protectionism threatening to dim Europe’s economic lights, Southeast Asia – fuelled by its nation-building infrastructure activity - could be the commercial catalyst that European corporates need. --------- If a spending deficit of US$1.2 trillion in six key Asian economies and a rising tide of protectionist rhetoric in Europe don’t seem the most promising combination of business prospects, think again. Add in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, and together they make a compelling case of the potential for a multi-year boom in investment and construction that will create entirely new economic ecosystems. Belt and Road at its most basic is a strategy to build the transport links and logistics capacity to boost the flow of trade between China and more than 65 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe to an estimated US$2.5 trillion annually in the co
15 May 2017 The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Peter Wong Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   To really understand what the “Belt and Road” initiative is all about, it’s best to stop thinking of it as being purely about “roads” and infrastructure “belts.” True, “Belt and Road” will involve building a lot of highways, railways, bridges and other infrastructure – the physical building blocks that will facilitate greater trade flows not just with China’s immediate neighbours, but also with countries as far afield as Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The overall goal is to facilitate regional trade and cooperation by smoothing the passage of goods and services across borders. China expects its annual trade with the more than 65 countries along the “Belt” and “Road” routes to surpass USD2.5 trillion in the next decade, up from about USD1 trillion in 2015.[1] This will bring a welcome boost at a time of anaemic global trade growth
Peter Wong Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   To really understand what the “Belt and Road” initiative is all about, it’s best to stop thinking of it as being purely about “roads” and infrastructure “belts.” True, “Belt and Road” will involve building a lot of highways, railways, bridges and other infrastructure – the physical building blocks that will facilitate greater trade flows not just with China’s immediate neighbours, but also with countries as far afield as Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The overall goal is to facilitate regional trade and cooperation by smoothing the passage of goods and services across borders. China expects its annual trade with the more than 65 countries along the “Belt” and “Road” routes to surpass USD2.5 trillion in the next decade, up from about USD1 trillion in 2015.[1] This will bring a welcome boost at a time of anaemic global trade growth