GREATER BAY AREA: A 2030 OUTLOOK- Opportunities and challenges over the next decade

By Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and Colliers International

Summary & Recommendations

The Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a national initiative highlighted in the Chinese government’s 13th Five Year Plan, aiming to build a globally competitive mega-region, and by 2035, build a productivity cluster, serving as a key facilitator of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Chinese term for a mega-region, 城市群, translates to cluster of cities, and may serve as the most appropriate definition in the context of the GBA.


While Hong Kong SAR*, Shenzhen and Guangzhou shall become the future key office clusters for the GBA, we forecast that there could be a total of additional 21 million sq metres of office space needed given the forecasted economic growth between 2019-2028. The improved connectivity of the cities’ ports, which are three of the world’s top 10 largest, should result in synergies to facilitate further growth.


The differences between the Hong Kong and Chinese economic systems, legal structure, and labour costs may become a challenge to attract the right balance of skilled labour into the GBA. Meanwhile, the cost of commuting across cities still exceeds that of intracity travel. Bridging these gaps will be crucial to unlock the untapped potential for the next stage of economic development in the GBA.


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