一帶一路「設施聯通」中PPP模式扮演的角色

香港城市大學新絲路研究中心

(一)一帶一路“設施聯通”建設中,PPP模式的優勢

“一帶一路”倡議主要由兩個部分組成,“絲綢之路經濟帶”和“21世紀海上絲綢之路”。  倡議將以沿線國中心城市為支撐,以重點合作經貿園區為平臺,完善基礎設施建設,推動國家間貿易和投資,以實現區域的共榮共贏。[1] 2017年5月,在北京召開了一帶一路峰會,此次峰會中更加明確了一帶一路倡議實施的五個主要方向和著力點(簡稱:“五通”):政策溝通、設施聯通、貿易暢通、資金融通、民心相通。 其中,大量在建和即將建設的基礎設施工程,將成為一帶一路戰略“設施聯通”的最重要組成部分。

這些工程對於一帶一路戰略的實施和推進,對於實現“設施聯通”的意義和價值不言而喻。這些工程的盈利能力,長週期,高投入的特點,以及沿線國的政治經濟風險等問題,不僅是西方國家和許多學者專家由此對一帶一路倡議背後動機質疑的理由, 也是長久以來,基礎設施建設投資所不可回避的挑戰。面對種種質疑和挑戰,是PPP模式(Public-Private-Partnership, 即政府-社會資本-合作模式),因其有風險分擔和多樣化融資的特徵,將會必然扮演重要角色。全世界範圍內,PPP模式應用的案例非常多,發展歷史也比較悠久。

PPP模式對一帶一路沿線的基建項目建設將會有以下幾個方面的優勢:

  1. 沿線國基礎設施建設需求龐大,但相應的技術和資金匱乏,PPP模式是化解這一困難的有效手段。 根據世界銀行的數據測算,2015年“一帶一路”沿線國家(包括中國)的GDP約為24.86萬億美元,占到全球經濟總量的1/3左右。假設以總體基建投入約占GDP的5%進行估算,那麼“一帶一路”沿線對基建的需求或達到每年24萬億美元。 現有的資金來源主要包括:沿線國家內部的金融資源和國際金融機構。據元立方金服研究對“一帶一路”資金來源的考察,絲路基金、亞洲基礎設施投資銀行、金磚國家開發銀行以及上合組織開發銀行這4個官方融資渠道能向“一帶一路”建設提供的融資規模大概在3500億美元左右。一帶一路基礎建設方的融資需求無法得到有效滿足臨著巨大的融資需求。更重要的是,在基礎建設領域投資,除資金外,投資的組織和運用形式也至關重要。PPP模式強調轉化政府職能,利用企業運營經驗,提升政府的服務效能。 因此,PPP模式即可以幫助沿線國家吸引外國投資者在本國長期發展,解決基礎建設融資的問題,又為沿線國家的政府提供了向外國優秀企業學習的機會,積累管理和運營的經驗。
  2. 部分一帶一路國家有 PPP 合作經驗。 PPP 是歐洲特別是英國最早採用的融資建設及運營基礎設施的方式。不少當地政府具有與這些國家交往和合作的經驗,因此,在法律上和政策上相對容易適應和操作。基礎設施 PPP項目往往需要政府在政策法律土地稅收等各方面給予支持,因此,提前對開發,建設和運營中與行政職能交叉重疊部分進行合理安排和分工,可以有效降低企業的融資,建設和運營成本,從而實現以最小的成本實現公共服務效能的最大化。
  3. PPP投資模式,可以滿足企業以股權的投資形式進行投資,擺脫單純地承包商的角色,更好地參與項目的決策過程中。“一帶一路”將會有很多相對綜合的發展項目,而不僅僅是工程建設,比如鐵路或者港口的建設和運營,甚至園區整體開發。PPP 模式的核心,即是由承辦資本方通過良好的經營向政府提供其需要購買的服務,這正是這種綜合發展項目最需要的。

 

(二)中國企業和中國PPP模式的機遇

首先,根據AEI (China Global Investment Tracker)[2]和世界銀行的統計,截至2016年,中國在一帶一路沿線國家直接投資和建造合同總額為780.8億美元,占全球範圍內投資31.8%。 其中,建造合同方面,2016年我國對一帶一路國家建造合同額為474.9億美元,占全球範圍內投資的62.11%。 [3]據商務部最新數據,中國企業目前已經在“一帶一路”沿線20個國家建設了56個經貿合作區,涉及多個領域,累計投資超過185億美元。現階段,中國作為倡議國,在對一帶一路國家的投資和建設中,承擔了很好的帶頭作用。

與此同時,我們看到,由於中國自身發展的需要,自2014年初PPP模式推廣以來,截至2017月初,按照要求審核納入PPP綜合信息平臺項目庫的項12699個,總投資額153,011億元。[4] 儘管中國PPP模式發展時間並不長,自身存在的問題也有很多,但是中國PPP項目體量大,且覆蓋各個領域,應用於不同行業和區域。在這個過程中金融機構,企業,政府,包括諮詢服務和學術研究機構都積累了大量的經驗和教訓。 這些經驗和教訓不僅僅使得中國的企業,政府和各類相關機構對PPP模式的機制和應用有了更成熟和深刻的認識,也將為一帶一路沿線國家應用PPP模式提供豐富的實踐經驗。例如,香港特別行政區為了更好地指導 PPP 項目在香港的實行,效率促進組(Efficiency Units)先後出臺了《公私合營項目 PPP 指南》和《公私合營項目 PPP 指南 2008》。 香港也有相當一批優秀的企業,成功的運用PPP模式,實現了提高公共服務效能的同時,為企業創造利潤。其中,香港港鐵公司的“軌道+物業”模式獲得了大量關注,許多國家的軌道交通規劃建設上,都予以借鑒和學習。這些豐富的經驗和資源,成功案例和失敗教訓,將對就一帶一路沿線國的投資建設起到指導和借鑒的作用,也將成為中國向世界分享和推廣自身PPP模式的機會。

(三)一帶一路上的PPP典型案例

In May 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission to the whole society to collect all the way to a typical case of PPP, these projects under construction and the construction of the project to a certain extent reflects the use of infrastructure infrastructure investment in the use of PPP mode, also provides PPP Mode in the area along the country with the application of the real case. The solicitation event, eventually 52 items shortlisted. Shortlisted 52 projects, almost all by large state-owned enterprises swept. The top three areas of the project are: electricity; park development and communication, information, network; of which the power project accounts for nearly 40% of the total number of projects. BOT, DBFOT, BOOT, BOO, participation in shares and other forms exist in the PPP mode, in which the BOT is most widely used. The investment in the shortlisted project covers 26 countries and regions around the world, however, Southeast Asia topped the list, accounting for four percent. Twenty-one of the 52 projects gave a clear franchise period. Some projects are funded by the National Development Bank, including AIIB, Silk Road Fund and other international financial organizations with the same direction as the core, but mainly self-financing. From the payment method, the government to buy the main, followed by the user to pay the way.

PPP model as one of the basic options for infrastructure construction, shortlisted projects, energy and large municipal projects accounted for 85% of the total number of projects. At the same time, because of such large-scale projects on the enterprise's capital, technology and scale requirements are relatively high, the strength of the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises to become the main force. For example, the national grid, in the power grid infrastructure has a wealth of experience, the finalists selected projects include: Pakistan Minti Li - Lahore HVDC project, the Brazilian holding company equity and green investment projects, the Portuguese National Energy Network (REN) equity investment projects and Greek independent transmission operations company equity investment projects. Shortlisted part of the project, Chinese enterprises get more than 50% stake, accounting for absolute holding position. (Such as: Indonesia Bali 3 × 142MW coal-fired power plant project; Vietnam Haiyang 2 × 600MW coal-fired power plant). It can be said that Chinese enterprises in these PPP projects, to master a certain degree of dominance and influence for the PPP model in these countries have a certain influence. On the other hand, shortlisted projects, the choice of PPP mode to BOT-based, financing channels and return patterns are relatively simple. PPP mode in the area along the way part of the country's application is still the primary stage. How to give full play to the advantages of PPP mode, to support the way along the way infrastructure construction, there is a lot of development and exploration of space.

Finally, although the application of PPP mode, will face many problems and challenges. For example, how does the PPP model adapt to the economic and political soils of the countries along the country, how to ensure the value of money for the PPP project, how to improve the government's effectiveness, and how to set up a PPP model The best practice, design a more scientific performance evaluation system ... ... are placed in front of the real problem, it is worth our further thinking and research. But no means that the implementation of a strategy along the way, especially the realization of facilities Unicom, PPP model will play an important role. June 17, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission Deputy Director of Finance Chen Hongwan also "Infrastructure Investment and Financing International Symposium" said that with the "one way along the" advance, the next five-year plan " PPP investment may be more than 20 trillion yuan. [5] Chinese enterprises should grasp the opportunity along the way, combined with their own development experience, give full play to and use the advantages of PPP model for the "one way" and the construction of local people to enhance the quality of life to contribute.

[1] Xinhua News Agency, authorized release: to promote the construction of the Silk Road economic zone and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road vision and line    http://news.xinhuanet.com/finance/2015-03/28/c_1114793986.htm 

[2] China Global Investment Tracker, http://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/ 

[3] China along the way network, the Ministry of Commerce data: https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/info/iIndex.jsp?cat_id=10018

[4] Ministry of Finance, Government and Social Capital Research Center, http://www.cpppc.org/

[5] China along the way network, Development and Reform Commission: the future area of ​​PPP investment or over 20 trillion http://www.sohu.com/a/149939192_731021