Content Group 7 of Tajikistan

Fitch Solutions Risk Summary

​​​​​​ECONOMIC RISK
Tajikistan is one of the risk-exposed countries in the Central Asian region, as it remains excessively dependent on remittances from Russia. Tajikistan's economic success hinges on an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the construction of the Rogun dam, which is projected to be completed in 2032. The government issued USD500 million of 10-year Eurobonds to finance the construction. If completed in time, the dam will produce enough electricity to meet Tajikistan's needs and to be sold to neighbouring countries. This would be a boost to the economy, which suffers from recurrent power outages. However, failure to complete the project risks complicating the process of restructuring its debt.

OPERATIONAL RISK
Businesses evaluating opportunities in Tajikistan will face a poor operating environment. The country's weakest points are its logistical profile and security environment, as ageing utilities and transport infrastructure mean power outages and road accidents are commonplace. The country's trade and investment, and labour environments do not perform much better, with factors such as a heavy economic reliance on remittances from Russia, high public debt and significant levels of bureaucratic red tape making it difficult to do business. Education levels are also poor in Tajikistan, with most workers in the formal economy being employed within the agricultural sector.

Date last reviewed: March 4, 2020

Fitch Solutions Political and Economic Risk Indicies