Key Findings

• With both the Current Performance Index (51.0) and the Expectation Index (52.4) rebounding to above 50, the 2Q26 HKTDC Export Confidence Index highlights the improving optimism of Hong Kong exporters as they head into the second half of the year. Significantly, this upbeat sentiment has been maintained despite the lingering geopolitical uncertainties in Middle East.
• Overall, expectations improved in the case of all of Hong Kong’s major export markets. While the ASEAN bloc (66.5) and the Chinese Mainland (59.3) were seen as most promising, readings were also notably up for the EU (49.2), Japan (49.0) and the US (44.7).
• In terms of industry sector, Electronics, Timepieces, and Toys all returned Current Performance and Expectation readings above the 50 watershed level. The corresponding readings for Clothing, Equipment/Materials, and Jewellery, however, retreated into contractionary territory.

Index overview

The 2Q26 HKTDC Export Confidence Index saw a rebound with its two key metrics – the Current Performance Index (51.0) and the Expectation Index (52.4) – rising above 50¹.

Sub-indices

Of the sub‑indices, the Sales and New Orders Sub-Index recorded the largest improvement across both its Current Performance (56.1, up 12.1) and Expectation (57.4, up 12.7) readings, outcomes that indicate the likelihood of stronger overseas demand.

Overall, the Trade Value Sub-Index posted the highest readings for both Current Performance (59.1, up 8.2) and Expectation (59.9, up 10.8), underscoring the overall increase in unit prices. The Procurement Sub-Index enjoyed a similar bounce back across both its Current Performance (52.5, up 7.6) and Expectation (53.0, up 10.3) readings.

Turning to the Cost Sub-Index, its Current Performance (23.4, down 14.7) and Expectation (26.4, down 14.9) readings both suggest a significant increase in cost pressure. A more neutral outcome was evident in the case of the Inventory Sub-Index, with its Current Performance (49.0, down 13.2) and Expectation readings (50.3, down 12.7) both retreating to around the 50 watershed level.

Sentiment by market

Reassuringly, with the exception of the US, the Current Market Sub-Index readings for all of Hong Kong’s major markets returned to expansionary territory. In more specific terms, the reading for the ASEAN bloc surged by 20.5 points to 67.4, while the corresponding figure for the Chinese Mainland was up by 12.8 points to 55.5. There were also notable rises for the EU (56.0, up 7.2) and Japan (50.2, up 14.1). In the case of the US (37.1, up 2.2), while sentiment rallied, it remained firmly in contractionary territory.

Turning to the Expectation Sub-Index, exporters once again expressed a higher level of optimism with regard to all of Hong Kong’s major markets. This was most pronounced in the case of the ASEAN bloc (66.5, up 22.1) and the Chinese Mainland (59.3, up 15.5), followed by the EU (49.2, up 3.1) and Japan (49.0, up 13.0). The US, meanwhile, showed a notable improvement with its Expectation rating climbing to 44.7 (up 8.3), while continuing to trail other major markets.

Sentiment by industry

In terms of industry, exporter sentiment was notably mixed, a pattern evident across the relevant Current Performance and the Expectation readings. On the upside, the Current Performance readings for Electronics (51.7, up 6.8), Timepieces (51.3, up 0.1 points), and Toys (50.9, up 3.2) were all comfortably in expansionary territory. Three other sectors – Clothing (48.9, down 3.2), Equipment/Materials (46.9, down 3.4), and Jewellery (35.0, down 27.1) – however, were down and remained in contractionary space.

The related Expectation readings told a similar story. Once again, three sectors – Electronics (53.2, up 7.6 points), Timepieces (51.9, up 1.5), and Toys (51.0, up 3.9) exhibited clear expansionary intent, while three others – Equipment/Materials (48.9, down 2.2), Clothing (48.1, down 5.3), and Jewellery (38.5, down 17.5) – inspired considerably less exporter confidence.

Appendix 

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index was introduced in 1Q24. It is a composite of five sub‑indices – Sales and New Orders, Trade Value, Cost, Procurement, and Inventory – and seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of Hong Kong exporter sentiment.

There are two primary / overall indices, one of which gauges the Current Performance in the present quarter, while the other considers the Expectation for the upcoming quarter via a weighted average of the following five sub‑indices:

• Sales and New Orders: This is an indication of overall export performance as well as the level of new export orders received by respondents. This index is compiled based on respondents' feedback regarding the prospects of each of their major export markets.
• Trade Value: This focuses on tracking the movement of unit export prices.
• Cost: This tracks cost pressures as they relate to day-to-day operations, including raw material prices / labour and other operational costs / financing requirements. Compared with the other indices, it is an inverted index, with an index reading above 50 indicating a downward trend for costs, while a reading below 50 indicates an upward trend for costs.
• Procurement: This is a measure of the input-buying activity of Hong Kong traders.
• Inventory: This tracks the overall inventory levels held by respondents for present use and the upcoming quarter. An index reading above 50 indicates a lower-than-normal inventory level, while a reading below 50 indicates a higher-than-normal inventory level.

¹ 2Q26 data collection took place from 4 May to 22 May 2026.

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index is designed to gauge the prospects of the near-term export performance of Hong Kong traders. To deliver on this, a quarterly survey of 500+ Hong Kong traders from six major industry sectors is conducted. Any index reading above 50 indicates an upward trend and an optimistic outlook, while any index reading below 50 indicates a downward trend and a pessimistic outlook.

As this is a new Index, which debuted in 1Q24, its findings cannot be directly compared with those of earlier studies.