「一帶一路」鋪開金融大道

王冬勝

香港上海滙豐銀行有限公司副主席兼行政總裁

 

要真正理解國家「一帶一路」戰略,我們不能只著眼於基礎建設,而應以更廣濶的視野去看這個宏大的藍圖。

「一帶一路」無疑涉及大量基礎建設,例如高速公路、鐵路、大橋等等,這些建設將促進中國與鄰近國家,以至歐洲、非洲及中東國家的貿易。

「一帶一路」藉著促進國際貨物和服務流通,推動區域貿易和合作。預料於未來十年,中國與沿線逾六十個國家的年貿易額將由2015年的約1萬億美元,躍升至超過2.5萬億美元。

現時環球貿易增長乏力,「一帶一路」猶如一枝強心針,也符合國家致力推動人民幣國際化,以及行之已久的鼓勵中國企業「走出去」的政策。

「一帶一路」不單關乎中國,對其他國家也將帶來深遠影響。龐大的基建投資對沒有足夠資金和技術自行發展大型基建項目的國家影響尤大。倡議下的基建項目包括連接印尼首都雅加達和萬隆市的高速鐵路,以及連接中國和老撾的鐵路。「一帶一路」相關投資也將為不同行業帶來商機,建築、運輸、替代能源和電訊等企業都將受惠。

或有人認為「一帶一路」遠大目標能否實現取決於詳細規劃,而目前細節不詳。提出這些質疑的人或許忽略了兩大重點。

首先,「一帶一路」不是一場短跑賽,而是一場馬拉松。要是「一帶一路」是一場短跑賽,那麼這項倡議便需要迫切制訂開支計劃和落實日期,需要見到大量工程動工,但事實並非如此「一帶一路」這項長遠戰略就好比一場馬拉松賽事,一項跨越數年甚至數十年的計劃會隨時間演變,以配合不同環境和區域的緩急需求。倡議下的項目往往需要經年規劃,更遑論落成。我們現在只不過在這場馬拉松賽的起步點。

其次,「一帶一路」並不局限於修橋築路,還將涵蓋金融基建,才可使貿易和投資更通暢,為實體基建項目提供資金來源。

為此,中國政府牽頭成立了幾個金融機構:

  • 亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(亞投行)於2016年1月正式開業,將為亞洲多國不同領域的基建項目如運輸和能源等,提供融資及擔保服務;  
  • 絲路基金。這項國家資金將在基建項目中佔少數利益,以扶助項目發展; 以及
  • 2015年成立、總部設於上海的新開發銀行,為巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國及南非(金磚五國)及其他發展中國家的基建項目提供融資。

以上金融機構的財力合共逾2,400億美元,將在「一帶一路」發展項目投資中發揮積極作用。

今年五月,亞投行和亞洲開發銀行也宣布會就一系列發展項目提供聯合融資,其中包括巴基斯坦境內一條全長64公里的高速公路。

然而,這些機構和其他公營機構可提供的融資額總和,仍不足以應付各國基建的龐大融資需求。

據亞洲開發銀行估計,隨著發展中國家在未來數年積極尋求提高生產力,以及數以百萬計的人口遷移至城市,亞太區每年對基建投資需求將高達17,000億美元。滙豐預計,單是東盟六大經濟體在2030年前的基建投資需求就高達2.1萬億美元,但目前的開支預算只能負擔約9,100億美元。 

這就是「一帶一路」帶來的巨大機遇。「一帶一路」的宏大目標勢將大大推動基礎設施建設,同時帶動這些基建項目的融資活動。

基建工程和融資服務雙管齊下,加上國家積極推動,「一帶一路」倡議將如虎添翼,除了造就商機,推動商品流通,亦會刺激人口數以億計的沿線國家未來的金融活動。假以時日,「一帶一路」的基建項目創造的漣漪效應,將遠大於每個單獨項目效益的總和,從而對經濟發展產生前所未見的拉動力。

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