Content Group 7 of Syrian Arab Republic

Country Content

Sovereign Credit Ratings

	Rating (Outlook)	Rating Date
Moody's	N/A	N/A
Standard & Poor's	N/A	N/A
Fitch Ratings	N/A	N/A

Sources: Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings

Competitiveness and Efficiency Indicators

	World Ranking
	2018	2019	2020
Ease of Doing Business Index	174/190	179/190	176/190
Ease of Paying Taxes Index	81/190	85/190	91/190
Logistics Performance Index	138/160	N/A	N/A
Corruption Perception Index	178/180	178/180	N/A
IMD World Competitiveness	N/A	N/A	N/A

Sources: World Bank, IMD, Transparency International

Fitch Solutions Risk Indices

	World Ranking
	2018	2019	2020
Economic Risk Index Rank	199/202	194/201	192/201
Short-Term Economic Risk Score	27.1	41.5	42.5
Long-Term Economic Risk Score	29.1	31.6	34.0
Political Risk Index Rank	198/202	197/201	197/201
Short-Term Political Risk Score	27.9	27.9	27.9
Long-Term Political Risk Score	21.7	24.2	24.2
Operational Risk Index Rank	187/201	184/201	187/201
Operational Risk Score	28.2	27.9	27.3

Source: Fitch Solutions
Date last reviewed: March 14, 2020

Fitch Solutions Risk Summary

ECONOMIC RISK

Given the prolonged period of unrest in Syria, along with the displacement of millions of Syrians, we expect continued economic decline over the coming quarters. The Syrian economy has contracted to the size it was in the early 1990s. While regions held by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will remain better off than those not under government control, business activity and state investment will remain stagnant, and living standards will continue to decline as the Syrian currency loses value.

OPERATIONAL RISK

Damascus undertook some key reforms to improve the country's business environment before the beginning of the civil war, such as allowing greater private investment in specific sectors through public-private partnerships. However, as long as the civil war continues, foreign investment will remain virtually non-existent, with only a few Iranian and Russian companies investing in government-controlled territory. Russia's entry into the Syrian civil war in September 2015 has reshaped the conflict, allowing the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad to make sweeping territorial gains and reduce the conflict zone to the largely rural province of Idlib in the northwest, adjoining Turkey.

Source: Fitch Solutions
Date last reviewed: March 15, 2020

Fitch Solutions Political and Economic Risk Indices

Fitch Solutions Operational Risk Index

	Operational Risk	Labour Market Risk	Trade and Investment Risk	Logistics Risk	Crime and Security Risk
Syria Score	27.3	42.8	23.7	27.6	15.0
MENA Average	47.4	53.1	48.0	47.7	40.9
MENA Position (out of 18)	15	16	17	14	17
Global Average	49.7	50.2	49.8	49.3	49.2
Global Position (out of 201)	187	146	190	177	193

100 = Lowest risk, 0 = Highest risk
Source: Fitch Solutions Operational Risk Index

Country/Region	Operational Risk Index	Labour Market Risk Index	Trade and Investment Risk Index	Logistics Risk Index	Crime and Security Risk Index
UAE	72.0	71.2	79.1	68.7	70.5
Qatar	65.9	65.0	61.8	71.6	61.2
Bahrain	65.0	62.2	61.9	64.5	69.2
Oman	64.5	63.1	69.5	71.5	53.6
Saudi Arabia	62.6	67.2	62.1	62.7	57.7
Jordan	56.5	56.9	60.7	59.0	52.3
Kuwait	54.3	43.2	63.8	54.8	53.2
Morocco	54.2	54.2	51.2	52.5	56.2
Egypt	48.7	49.9	45.7	56.4	42.9
Tunisia	46.5	42.2	56.2	47.3	42.3
Lebanon	44.1	53.0	51.9	41.4	29.7
Iran	43.2	49.5	36.7	50.8	34.4
Algeria	39.2	46.1	31.1	42.9	36.2
West Bank and Gaza	32.5	48.8	37.4	32.0	17.0
Syria	27.3	47.2	22.1	29.3	17.1
Libya	27.3	45.5	23.7	27.0	15.0
Iraq	26.9	43.7	24.8	28.6	12.4
Yemen	23.2	32.7	24.9	15.8	16.1
Regional Averages	47.4	52.3	48.0	48.7	40.9
Emerging Markets Averages	46.2	48.2	46.5	45.0	44.9
Global Markets Averages	49.7	50.2	49.8	49.3	49.2

100 = Lowest risk, 0 = Highest risk
Source: Fitch Solutions Operational Risk Index
Date last reviewed: March 14, 2020

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Risks