Global supply chain transfer and industrial development in Guangdong and Hong Kong (6)

Guangdong Province and Hong Kong enterprises based on a series of factors, on the one hand a positive transformation and upgrading, enhance competitiveness, at the same time with the development of the Mainland and global supply chain trends, re-development of appropriate production and procurement business strategy. In order to understand the specific situation, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, in cooperation with the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce, visited some of the Guangdong enterprises engaged in manufacturing and trading in the second quarter of 2017 to understand the specific factors that they considered when planning their business strategy. At the same time, The Board also visited some enterprises in Hong Kong. The following is a summary of the respondents in the business layout of the specific considerations:

Guangdong Province and Hong Kong enterprises to actively upgrade and upgrade (a).

Guangdong Province and Hong Kong enterprises to actively upgrade and upgrade (b).

• Towards the development of automated production

China has a mature supply chain system, coupled with efficient logistics services and other advantages, many overseas areas is difficult to compare. Facing the challenges of upgrading wages and costs, upgrading the plant and introducing automated production equipment can alleviate some of the problems. In particular, for technology-intensive manufacturing operations, non-skilled labor wages account for only a very low cost ratio, but require experienced technician support, but the transfer of production to low-cost areas in Asia to face the shortage of technicians.

• Give priority to business orientation

Accurate market positioning and business sustainability are key considerations in planning future business development. For high-tech or high-end consumer goods business, market competition is not the use of low-cost promotions to grab the market at low prices. Most of the enterprise development strategy focused on the development of the brand, improve product quality and technical content, increase product value and achieve the purpose of transformation and upgrading.

• The use of Southeast Asia to support the Mainland high-end production activities

However, the transfer of part of the low value-added production activities to overseas is one of the options to cope with rising costs, in addition to simple light industrial products, some companies are also considering the transfer of some parts or industrial materials production, and arrange to return these industrial materials Support the Mainland's high-tech production activities. In view of the fact that some Asian regions such as the Philippines and Cambodia have only relatively basic production conditions, the transfer of production mainly concentrated labor-intensive and acceptable long delivery period, the product life cycle of light industrial products and spare parts.

• Consider the overall cost-effectiveness

In addition, overseas direct investment must also take into account the cost of transportation, logistics, material supply and management, and measure the overall market efficiency, rather than only consider part of the direct production costs. On the one hand, most of the low-cost areas lack the mature supply chain, the need to import most of the raw materials from the field to support local production, in addition to increasing the cost of transport logistics, the longer the production cycle may not be able to help investors grasp the ever-changing international market opportunities.

• Market demand directs direct investment

Regional production layout to take into account the final market demand in order to provide customers with strategic production services. For example, to go to some Asian countries and " along the way " to invest in the country set up factories, the production of products sold locally can avoid import tariffs, even if the arrangements did not meet the minimum cost, but the development of local or neighboring markets may have strategic advantages. Some companies will choose to set up production lines in advanced countries, in addition to lower import tariffs, but also in the local market to provide better sales and after-sales service, help to enhance the brand image and related business value.

• Foreign trade measures affect production layout

In addition to overseas production to avoid trade barriers, including anti-dumping measures against the Mainland products, foreign trade in some developing countries, tariff concessions, can also be involved in the region to invest in production or procurement incentives. But the selected production site must have a certain degree of development of the supply chain, or have a more convenient transportation network, so that enterprises from China or other places to transport key components to support the local production business

For example, the United States is currently developing in Burma and other relatively backward countries (Least Developed Beneficiary Developing Countries, LDBDCs ) about 5,000 kinds of products (since July 2016 include travel goods), from Cambodia, the United States GSP under (GSP) To give preferential treatment of preferential treatment [1]. In the new EU preferential tax system (effective January 1, 2014), from some Asian countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and other beneficiary countries about 66% of the EU tariff items can enjoy tariff concessions; and Cambodia, Myanmar And Laos are listed as "Everything But Arms" beneficiary countries, that is, the EU for all products derived from these countries in addition to weapons, are exempt from import duties.

Details of the specific cases of some of the companies surveyed are listed below.

Accurate production from regional supply chain layout: Visit Tencent Technologies Asia Pacific Limited

To play the synergistic effect of regional production: visit Luen Thai Holdings Limited

Industrial upgrading and cost considerations: access to the mountains of automotive equipment Limited

Market Benefit Navigation Investment Strategy: Visit Guangdong Keda Jieneng Co., Ltd

Increased Product Value: Visit Mendel Precision Oral Medical Devices Ltd

Strategic global production layout: Visit the US group

For more information, see:

The relationship between global supply chain transfer and industrial development in Guangdong and Hong Kong (summary)

Global production pattern changes to promote growth in the Asian supply chain

The transformation of the Asian textile and garment industry supply chain

Asian electronics industry supply chain rapid growth

"Made in China" role transformation

The Relationship between Global Supply Chain Transfer and Industrial Development in Guangdong and Hong Kong (Summary and Suggestions)

[1] The measures do not include a variety of textiles, clothing, shoes, watches and other products.

Data provided 

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics Zhang Lin

"area along the way" International Cooperation Summit Forum has been successfully closed in Beijing, which is the way from the concept into action, from the vision into an important milestone in reality, but also shaping the globalization New pattern, the construction of a free trade network along the way to a new starting point. Trade as a link along the way an important pillar of interconnection, will also be the next three years, policy communication, project development focus areas.

From a micro perspective, more and more small and medium enterprises to participate in the "one way along the road" trade practitioners, cross-border e-commerce as a new way of trade, the share of the significant increase in traditional trade as a useful supplement in China's foreign trade environment Intricate situation, become a beautiful landscape. This is because: First, cross-border e-commerce to meet the market increasingly diversified, differentiated, personalized, fast demand, enhance the consumer's shopping experience. Second, cross-border e-commerce to build a more convenient, directly facing the customer's platform, reducing the intermediate links, saving costs, to meet the business needs of SMEs to expand overseas.

According to the Ministry of Commerce data show that in 2016 China's cross-border electricity business import and export trade volume reached 6.3 trillion, is expected by 2020, China's cross-border electricity trade scale will reach 12 trillion yuan, accounting for 37.6% of China's total imports and exports. Over the next three years, China's e-commerce and cross-border trade will usher in another major development opportunity, driven by a joint trade initiative. How should we do better to seize the opportunity to promote cross-border e-commerce health and sustainable development?

First, we should give full play to the integrated cross-border e-commerce platform for industrial upgrading and upgrading. Different from the single brand electric business is that the integrated platform is more able to form the industry agglomeration effect, to promote the entire industry chain suppliers, enterprises in-depth integration, from production, trade, transportation, warehousing, logistics and other aspects of seamless Convergence.

To Ali Group's global quick sales business, for example, through the construction of overseas warehouses, innovation platform and the electricity industry between the benign industry interaction model to enhance the logistics and warehousing and other supporting services quality. In the past, a merchandise shipped from China to Spain had an average of more than one month, and the rookie network was optimized for the end of the logistics chain and reached a green line with the Spanish logistics. Now that time has been shortened to an average of 10 days The In the off-season trade, through the maritime or Central European railroad way, manufacturers will be goods in advance to the overseas warehouse, a significant reduction in the cost of transport packages; in the double eleven, Christmas, New Year and other high season, after receiving orders Directly from the overseas warehouse delivery, the goods will be delivered to consumers in the hands of the local online purchase of Chinese goods logistics aging increased to 72 hours within the sign.

Second, we should give full play to the cross-border e-commerce platform for trade intermediary role. In the 1980s, nearly 80% of the import and export trade was completed by 300 trade brokers, which is an important trading platform for Japan. At this stage, China has not yet formed a match with the manufacturing industry, trade intermediary and marketing network, cross-border electricity and integrated e-commerce platform to just make up for the rise of this vacancy for the traditional trade provides a modern service guarantee. To Alibaba Group, for example, it will work with Malaysia to build China's first overseas digital trade zone, Chinese tourists use this platform, you can buy Malaysian goods directly back to the country, which is Japan's integrated trading company's business content is very similar.

Many small and medium enterprises to enter the foreign market is facing high market entry costs, including marketing channels, brand building, advertising, market research, and cross-border electricity business platform can be through its professional advantages, incubator funding, integration of overseas customer resources, To help manufacturers to develop the international market, enhance product brand value. For example, thanks to the Internet, China's millet phone, puppy appliances and other domestic brands, has become a "net red burst", in the European middle-class families have a very high brand recognition. Only a Spanish market, 2016 annual sales of double-11 orders than the same period last year increased by 8 times, less than 1 hour, more than 2,000 millet phone was robbed and empty. More and more successful cases such as cooperation, to accelerate the promotion of Chinese clothing, mobile phones, home appliances, electronic products are exported overseas.

Third, we should adhere to the sense of innovation, with large data and Internet technology as the support, leading the new trade model. Large data, cloud computing, databases, artificial intelligence, chips and other science and technology for the development of trade into infinite vitality, the greatest extent to reduce costs, integration of information flow, capital flow and commodity flow. Manufacturers do not have to do a separate market research and analysis, just look at the computer before the online trading data, advertising and electricity to see the publicity effect of the page to see what time is expected to ship the number of expected consumer behavior and purchase. Big data technology revolution, innovative business model, become an inexhaustible motive force for the growing prosperity of trade.

Fourth, we should strengthen the construction of credit system, cross-border transaction payment and settlement system for the sustainable development of cross-border electricity and lay a good foundation. Some users joked that Alipay is China's "new four inventions", which reflects the side from a side of the importance of safe payment methods, but also an important guarantee for the development of e-commerce. In 2013, 17 domestic third-party payment agencies represented by Alipay received the approval of the SAFE, extending to 22 in 2015, and the third-party cross-border payment system is gradually accelerating and improving. Compared with the traditional trade, the use of bank credit endorsement of wire transfer, letters of credit compared to third-party payment has a business resource coverage, transaction payment security, business process specifications and other unparalleled advantages. As the world's fastest growing e-commerce countries, China should promote and lead the mobile payment and cross-border electronic settlement system construction.

Fifth, should be e-commerce, production cooperation, Chinese enterprises to go out strategy to expand the field of e-commerce trade. By the e-commerce format in the form of limitations, online trading more consumer products, daily necessities, food, etc., but the Chinese manufacturing in machinery, mechanical and electrical products, such as the same competitive. Should be aimed at the characteristics of such products, cultivate the development of professional vertical cross-border electricity business platform, the online impact and offline entities of the exhibition will be combined with after-sales maintenance and other technical services, a variety of channels to create the integration of the development of " The road ", and strive to build" one way across the net "new pattern.

In addition, the state regulators and policy makers from the domestic policy environment, the construction of international rules, for cross-border e-commerce to create a good industry development space for its growing direction. These initiatives include:

First of all, strengthen the customs supervision and management of small and medium enterprises policy interpretation and communication. China's goods are entering the world, facing different market environment and policy supervision system. At present, China is making full use of bilateral and multilateral cooperation framework to improve the consistency of regulatory standards, reduce trade barriers and improve trade facilitation, such as WTO trade facilitation agreements. Korea FTA, China and Australia FTA and so on. We should strengthen communication between government, regulatory authorities and enterprises, improve policy transparency, and guide enterprises to make better use of favorable foreign trade policies.

Second, as soon as possible to the development of China's e-commerce proposition, and gradually form a set of adaptation and lead the global cross-border e-commerce development of trade systems and rules. At present, in the multilateral economic governance platform, such as G20, APEC and so attach great importance to e-commerce and digital trade issues. As a big country in the development of e-commerce, China should take the initiative to strengthen intellectual property rights, improve the quality and service of electrical products, build Chinese brands, participate in global governance, master the right to speak.

"Along the way" has become China to promote the introduction of a new model of economic globalization, a new regional cooperation as an important platform mechanism. There is no doubt that cross-border e-commerce is "an area along the way" practice an important foothold in new ways, new channels and new rules to lead the development of global trade and investment. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, a high degree of interoperability and trade flow, fully demonstrated the vitality and charm of China's trade power, stimulated the potential of free trade, making the majority of consumers at home and abroad benefit.

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台灣經濟研究院助理研究員林士清

一帶一路涵蓋65個核心國家，覆蓋面積約5539km2，約佔全球總面積的41.3%；惠及46.7億人口，約佔全球總人口的66.9%；區域經濟總量達27.4萬億美元，佔據全球經濟總量的38.2%。然而，一帶一路倡議以國有企業至當地市場投資基礎建設為主，對於中國大陸中小企業出口至當地市場的物流障礙仍高；此外，中國大陸亦缺乏日本在投資市場的物流網聯盟，以及韓國KOTRA設置海外共同物流中心協助韓商降低物流成本。是以，一帶一路倡議尚缺乏物流運籌產業提升發展的清晰途徑，筆者建議可參照第三方物流(3PL)引入一帶一路，並兼論中國大陸物流運籌業之發展。

一帶一路(B&R) 泛指「絲綢之路經濟帶」和「21世紀海上絲綢之路」( "the Belt and Road, B&R" refers to the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road，OBOR")，該倡議將涵蓋26個國家及地區44億人口，預計產生21萬億美元的經濟成果，分別約佔全球總量之62.5%及29.5%，堪稱全世界最長的經濟走廊。

值得注意的是 ，針對一帶一路之英譯爭議，中國大陸的國家發展和改革委員會同其外交部、商務部等部門，對「一帶一路」英文譯法進行了統一的規範，減少坊間對一帶一路英譯的落差。在對外公文中，統一將 「絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路」的英文全稱譯為「the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road」，「一帶一路」簡稱譯為「the Belt and Road」，英文縮寫用「B&R」。

一帶一路具有連結歐亞大陸經貿板塊之戰略思維 ，當中兩端的東亞、歐洲經濟發展勢頭較好，而中亞、中東地區經濟增長相對緩慢，加上產業分工體系的 不合理，但是彼此間具有 較強的互補性。從橫向而言，貫穿中國、中亞及西亞；縱來看，連接主要沿海港口城市，並且不斷向中亞、東協、南亞等地延伸。此將改變中國區域發展版圖，強調區域之間的互聯互通，產業承接與轉移，有利於中國經濟轉型升級。
 
理念倡議大於實體機制

一帶一路並非是一個實體和機制，而是一套合作發展的理念和倡議，仰賴中國與一帶一路沿線國家既有的雙邊及多邊機制，藉以協助既有的區域合作平台。不過，中國對所投資的涉外項目的管理上也發生了變化，中國團隊不但參與修建基礎設施，還參與日後的管理，不像之前建完即完成任務，交給當地人管理。當然，中國的「一帶一路」的一些項目也受到一些有關國家的抵制，拒絕參加或是不合作。

針對《經濟學人》對一帶一路的評論，表示中國的古絲綢之路自七世紀時是一條連接中國和中亞、中東、非洲以及歐洲的古代通商要道，也是中國經濟和外交擴張的重要通路。迄今，從中國的陸地板塊及海洋板塊向西延伸之一帶一路多數沿線國家，尚處在工業化初期發展階段，不少國家的經濟高度依賴能源、礦產等資源型行業，中國大陸國有企業將率先在工程基建、建築建材、交通運輸、旅遊餐飲等領域，帶動對沿線國家的產品、設備、勞務和投資的輸出。但是，同時中小企業由於數量眾多，機制先進，通過國際貿易和海外直接投資等方式，形成了對特定地區行業的深入了解。

中國物流運籌業之國際化途徑

一帶一路倡議貫穿亞歐非大陸，連結東亞經濟圈及歐洲經濟圈，中間腹地廣大，國家經濟發展潛力巨大。從歐亞大陸板塊的地緣經濟來說，絲綢之路經濟帶重點暢通中國經中亞、俄羅斯至歐洲（波羅的海）；中國經中亞、西亞至波斯灣、地中海；中國至東南亞、南亞、印度洋。21世紀海上絲綢之路重點方向是從中國沿海港口過南海到印度洋，延伸至歐洲；從中國沿海港口過南海到南太平洋。 自古以來中國歷經不同朝代更替，但國力強盛之時都有影響周邊地區的能量，一帶一路是否為衡量中國國力再次復甦的指標，端視其政策執行後的影響。

一帶一路之經貿合作其實有助於擴展物流產業的發展，包含基礎設施的互聯互通，沿線區域內之雙邊貿易及投資量將持續擴張，因彼此貿易投資量的擴張將帶來物流量的擴大，加強建設一帶一路的沿線區域海陸空基礎設施，遂成為重中之重，為中國大陸物流國際化途徑創造了兩項利基：一是電力、公路、港口、鐵道等基礎設施，有機會成為中國對外工程承包企業在沿線國家經營的優勢來源，工程承包項目的持續增長將拉動工程物流市場，從而提供新的成長空間。其次，伴隨區域互聯互通的建設快速成長及擴散，中國與一帶一路沿線國家的海運將增加新的航線及班次，陸水聯運通道將不斷地打通，而一帶一路區域內的航空貨運之規模將不斷地擴張，包含集裝箱運輸、散雜貨運輸及航空貨代業務等國際物流將快速成長。

為強化中國出口產品之競爭優勢及突破中國物流業國際業化能量尚淺之困境，可透過「第三方物流」(3PL)機制引入一帶一路戰略發展思維，強化中國大陸中小企業出口及投資一帶一路沿線國家之餘，亦可提供高水平的物流服務外包、以減少企業對物流設施的投資、克服內部勞動力效率不高等問題。事實上，觀察物流運籌功能日趨複雜化和全球化、庫存單位的增加、流通渠道的脆弱性和產品周期的縮短，以及透過第三方物流適當的政策設計，相關應用有利於整合及供應鏈的建立，並實踐中國物流國際化途徑。

第三方物流(3PL)與一帶一路沿線國家市場的連結

中國大陸物流業目前缺乏具備國際競爭力的大型物流企業，而且物流業本身亦缺乏深入的合作及交流，無法提供中國企業出口至海外市場降低物流成本及提高價值之後盾，中國大陸物流行為單一但 服務標準並不一致，成為中國大陸物流業無法迅速國際化的制約，故可透過「第三方物流」機制來 篩選一帶一路沿線國家之當地物流商。

所謂的第三方物流(Third Party Logistics，簡稱3PL)，也稱作委外物流(logistics outsourcing)或是合約物流(contract logistics)，第三方物流基礎若完善還可搶先步入第四方物流的契機。第四方物流(Fourth party logistics)是一個供應鏈的集成商，一般情況下，政府為促進地區物流產業發展，會領頭搭建第四方物流平台提供共享及發佈信息服務，可以說是供需雙方及第三方物流的領導力量。它不僅是物流的利益方，而是通過擁有的信息技術、整合能力以及其他資源，提供一套完整的供應鏈解決方案，並以此獲取一定的利潤。

第三方物流特徵有四：(1) 有提供現代化、系統物流服務之企業素質；(2) 可以向貨主提供包括供應鏈物流在內的全程物流服務和客 製化服務的物流活動；(3)不是貨主與物流服務提供商偶然的、一次性的物流服務活動，而是一種採取委托 承包形式的長期業務外包形式的物流活動；(4) 不是向貨主提供一般性物流服務，而是提供增值物流服務的現代化物流活動。針對中國大陸物流產業科技化及國際化之發展契機，筆者建議途徑有四。

第三方物流(3PL)對一帶一路經貿戰略之啟發

中國大陸必須考量全球運籌與國際物流，以及一帶一路地區之市場特性，估空運及海運成本、當地物流業者合作篩選、國內中小企業之意願。最重要者乃挑選適當的營運據點，而此據點必須同時符合轉運中心及發貨倉庫的功能，例如，一帶一路沿線國家中可考量迪拜(阿聯)，因其具備轉運中心之功能，可輻射中東市場、南亞市場、北非市場、俄羅斯市場等，倘若當地物流配送體系發展完善，皆可優先考慮選擇之。

透過具備政府公信力之機構與當地零售連鎖大型通路業者合作，符合轉運中心及發貨倉庫功能之據點可優先選擇，並對於中國企業提供整合式出口物流服務。推動出口貿易或拓銷新興市場之戰略規劃，未必全然是企業廠商之需求或行為，更需要配合有政府政策執行力的推動。例如，韓國中小企業利用KOTRA進入海外目標市場時，可享有低於市價的優惠物流費用，當地物流業者甚至可以提供更多的加值及額外服務，有增加出口產品的競爭力。

一般而言，行銷業務上業者最需要者乃當地市場分析，並協助其建立原物料採購及倉儲設施，進而規劃產品促銷活動及收取貨款；配送業務方面，業者希望提供流通加工服務、配送及發貨中心服務，甚至在退貨及維修等售後服務；資訊科技方面，業者希望提供及時貨物追蹤服務、倉儲保全監控及資訊流通平台之建立等。尤甚，為擴大中國大陸出口商品在一帶一路沿線國家之市場的佔有率。尤甚，中小企業經過長期對外貿易的經驗和技術積累，其小批量製造技術和多功能的機器設備，較為適合一帶一路發展中國家市場的需要；勞動密集型技術以及在引進發達國家先進技術和設備的基礎上經過改造的技術和設備，符合一帶一路發展中國家的偏好；就地取材的技術較為容易受到一帶一路發展中國家的偏好。

結論

一帶一路是否常被國際社會上質疑為「中國版馬歇爾計劃」暫且不論，筆者倒是推薦《經濟學人》雜誌的說法，「一帶一路」 之所以舉世矚目主要有三個原因：首先，一帶一路倡議項目宏偉巨大，據官方數字，總價值8900萬美元，其中包括通過緬甸把中國西南部和孟加拉灣連接在一起的天然氣管道，以及從北京通往德國交通樞紐杜伊斯堡的鐵路線等，其國家投資累計金額達4兆美元；其次，一帶一路計劃之所以重要，還因為它被看作是中國領導人習近平的外交政策，外交顧問楊潔篪的話說，一帶一路可以讓中國到2020年成為「小康社會」，而到2050年則稱為一個繁榮、昌盛的國家。習近平也把「一帶一路」看作是擴張中國商業觸角和軟實力的途徑。它也在習近平的大外交政策中扮演核心角色。同時，它也符合習近平提出的「中國夢」的理念；第三，一帶一路之所以重要還因為它對美國以及世界貿易的傳統思維提出了挑戰，特別在美國總統川普上任後，恐促使全球範圍內的貿易保護主義當道。

一帶一路乃中小企業基於全球化價值鏈(GVC )重構之重要機遇。探究一帶一路之經貿合作之方式可歸納為三：首先，以企業(國營、民營、大中小)國際直接投資為主要形式，包含企業自主決策、自負盈虧、自擔風險；其次，政府政策作為配套，為企業向海外拓展創造有利條件；第三，遵循國際通行規範，以市場作為資源配置的導向。最後，筆者認為通路、通航和通商等暢通遂為一帶一路解決戰略問題的關鍵，例如，一帶主要是從通路著手，通路所推進的地區基礎設施薄弱，提升空間更大，其對接的是西部廣闊的腹地，將在交通設施建設和油氣管道建設；又例如，一路著重21世紀海上絲綢之路將以國內外的港口為支點建設，推動各種規格的自貿協定談判，可從上海和泉州湄洲灣港的超級深水港為依托建設國際中轉港，帶動建設國際經濟、金融、貿易、航運中心，掌控國際貿易主導權、議價權和配置權。

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