「一带一路」铺开金融大道

王冬胜

香港上海汇丰银行有限公司副主席兼行政总裁

 

要真正理解国家「一带一路」战略,我们不能只着眼于基础建设,而应以更广阔的视野去看这个宏大的蓝图。

「一带一路」无疑涉及大量基础建设,例如高速公路、铁路、大桥等等,这些建设将促进中国与邻近国家,以至欧洲、非洲及中东国家的贸易。

「一带一路」借着促进国际货物和服务流通,推动区域贸易和合作。预料于未来十年,中国与沿线逾六十个国家的年贸易额将由2015年的约1万亿美元,跃升至超过2.5万亿美元。

现时环球贸易增长乏力,「一带一路」犹如一枝强心针,也符合国家致力推动人民币国际化,以及行之已久的鼓励中国企业「走出去」的政策。

「一带一路」不单关乎中国,对其他国家也将带来深远影响。庞大的基建投资对没有足够资金和技术自行发展大型基建项目的国家影响尤大。倡议下的基建项目包括连接印尼首都雅加达和万隆市的高速铁路,以及连接中国和老挝的铁路。「一带一路」相关投资也将为不同行业带来商机,建筑、运输、替代能源和电讯等企业都将受惠。

或有人认为「一带一路」远大目标能否实现取决于详细规划,而目前细节不详。提出这些质疑的人或许忽略了两大重点。

首先,「一带一路」不是一场短跑赛,而是一场马拉松。要是「一带一路」是一场短跑赛,那么这项倡议便需要迫切制订开支计划和落实日期,需要见到大量工程动工,但事实并非如此「一带一路」这项长远战略就好比一场马拉松赛事,一项跨越数年甚至数十年的计划会随时间演变,以配合不同环境和区域的缓急需求。倡议下的项目往往需要经年规划,更遑论落成。我们现在只不过在这场马拉松赛的起步点。

其次,「一带一路」并不局限于修桥筑路,还将涵盖金融基建,才可使贸易和投资更通畅,为实体基建项目提供资金来源。

为此,中国政府牵头成立了几个金融机构:

  • 亚洲基础设施投资银行(亚投行)于2016年1月正式开业,将为亚洲多国不同领域的基建项目如运输和能源等,提供融资及担保服务;  
  • 丝路基金。这项国家资金将在基建项目中占少数利益,以扶助项目发展; 以及
  • 2015年成立、总部设于上海的新开发银行,为巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国及南非(金砖五国)及其他发展中国家的基建项目提供融资。

以上金融机构的财力合共逾2,400亿美元,将在「一带一路」发展项目投资中发挥积极作用。

今年五月,亚投行和亚洲开发银行也宣布会就一系列发展项目提供联合融资,其中包括巴基斯坦境内一条全长64公里的高速公路。

然而,这些机构和其他公营机构可提供的融资额总和,仍不足以应付各国基建的庞大融资需求。

据亚洲开发银行估计,随着发展中国家在未来数年积极寻求提高生产力,以及数以百万计的人口迁移至城市,亚太区每年对基建投资需求将高达17,000亿美元。汇丰预计,单是东盟六大经济体在2030年前的基建投资需求就高达2.1万亿美元,但目前的开支预算只能负担约9,100亿美元。 

这就是「一带一路」带来的巨大机遇。「一带一路」的宏大目标势将大大推动基础设施建设,同时带动这些基建项目的融资活动。

基建工程和融资服务双管齐下,加上国家积极推动,「一带一路」倡议将如虎添翼,除了造就商机,推动商品流通,亦会刺激人口数以亿计的沿线国家未来的金融活动。假以时日,「一带一路」的基建项目创造的涟漪效应,将远大于每个单独项目效益的总和,从而对经济发展产生前所未见的拉动力。

 

-全文完-

更多文章

2019年07月10日 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   Friction over trade between the world’s two largest economies naturally captures the attention of the business and investment community. The fact that cross-border trade within Asia is already much bigger than Asia’s exchange of goods and services with the U.S. or Europe makes fewer headlines, but is no less important.   It begs the question of what kind of networks, relationships and institutions will shape the future of international trade – and the answer to this question is beginning to emerge.   In partnership with China, which we expect to become the world’s biggest economy by 2030, a growing number of countries are rejecting economic isolation and beginning to work together to develop a new kind multilateralism.   While this process is in its infancy, I believe that a more collaborative approach to connecting economies tha
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited   Friction over trade between the world’s two largest economies naturally captures the attention of the business and investment community. The fact that cross-border trade within Asia is already much bigger than Asia’s exchange of goods and services with the U.S. or Europe makes fewer headlines, but is no less important.   It begs the question of what kind of networks, relationships and institutions will shape the future of international trade – and the answer to this question is beginning to emerge.   In partnership with China, which we expect to become the world’s biggest economy by 2030, a growing number of countries are rejecting economic isolation and beginning to work together to develop a new kind multilateralism.   While this process is in its infancy, I believe that a more collaborative approach to connecting economies tha
2019年05月24日 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司
15 May 2019   Policies targeting key priority areas have been instrumental in China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years, according to HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker. Mr Tucker was speaking at the sixth annual HSBC China conference in Shenzhen – a city that embodies the impact of targeted policies. Shenzhen’s Special Economic Zone was first established in the 1980s to stimulate private-sector businesses. It has helped the city grow from a small fishing village into “a bustling metropolis…and the birthplace and home of China’s leading tech companies,” Mr Tucker said. Other policies supporting the country’s continued development include opening up China’s capital markets, the Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Mr Tucker. The Greater Bay Area is designed to foster closer economic ties between Hong Kong, Macau and cities in mainland China including Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The Belt and Road Initiative supports
15 May 2019   Policies targeting key priority areas have been instrumental in China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years, according to HSBC Group Chairman Mark Tucker. Mr Tucker was speaking at the sixth annual HSBC China conference in Shenzhen – a city that embodies the impact of targeted policies. Shenzhen’s Special Economic Zone was first established in the 1980s to stimulate private-sector businesses. It has helped the city grow from a small fishing village into “a bustling metropolis…and the birthplace and home of China’s leading tech companies,” Mr Tucker said. Other policies supporting the country’s continued development include opening up China’s capital markets, the Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative, according to Mr Tucker. The Greater Bay Area is designed to foster closer economic ties between Hong Kong, Macau and cities in mainland China including Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The Belt and Road Initiative supports
2017年09月01日 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited In the wake of more isolationist political thinking in the West, with many developed economies turning inward, China is reaching out, seeking stronger trade and investment links with its economic partners. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is a prime example of this reaching out policy. Under the initiative, China aims to trigger demand for materials and goods at home by investing in strategic infrastructure projects abroad, growing economic ties along its old Silk Road to Europe and along newer maritime links in and around Asia and as far away as Africa, covering all potential points in-between. At its heart, the plan is to enhance global supply chains primarily through debt-financed infrastructure projects, across more than 60 countries. China expects annual trade with these countries to be worth US$ 2.5 trillion within a decade [1] – up from US$ 1 trillion in 2015
Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited In the wake of more isolationist political thinking in the West, with many developed economies turning inward, China is reaching out, seeking stronger trade and investment links with its economic partners. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is a prime example of this reaching out policy. Under the initiative, China aims to trigger demand for materials and goods at home by investing in strategic infrastructure projects abroad, growing economic ties along its old Silk Road to Europe and along newer maritime links in and around Asia and as far away as Africa, covering all potential points in-between. At its heart, the plan is to enhance global supply chains primarily through debt-financed infrastructure projects, across more than 60 countries. China expects annual trade with these countries to be worth US$ 2.5 trillion within a decade [1] – up from US$ 1 trillion in 2015
2017年07月21日 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司
By Gordon French, Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia Pacific, HSBC Perhaps it’s inevitable that interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative tends to revolve around the railway lines, ports and highways that will be constructed in its name. These are the most visible manifestations of the “Belt and Road,” and they evoke beguiling images of the ancient land and sea routes along which silk was once transported from Xi’An to St Petersburg, or tea from Guangzhou to Rotterdam. But sometimes it is the financial dimension of infrastructure in Asia that stands out – because of the sheer scale of what is required. The Asian Development Bank expects emerging Asia to need about US$26 trillion of infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030. That amounts to US$1.7 trillion a year – and that’s just in Asia, while the Belt and Road encompass Africa and Europe as well. [1] Financing this colossal need for transport, telecoms and energy infrastructure across more t
By Gordon French, Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia Pacific, HSBC Perhaps it’s inevitable that interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative tends to revolve around the railway lines, ports and highways that will be constructed in its name. These are the most visible manifestations of the “Belt and Road,” and they evoke beguiling images of the ancient land and sea routes along which silk was once transported from Xi’An to St Petersburg, or tea from Guangzhou to Rotterdam. But sometimes it is the financial dimension of infrastructure in Asia that stands out – because of the sheer scale of what is required. The Asian Development Bank expects emerging Asia to need about US$26 trillion of infrastructure investment between 2016 and 2030. That amounts to US$1.7 trillion a year – and that’s just in Asia, while the Belt and Road encompass Africa and Europe as well. [1] Financing this colossal need for transport, telecoms and energy infrastructure across more t
2017年06月27日 香港上海汇丰银行有限公司
By Stuart Tait, Group General Manager and Regional Head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific With protectionism threatening to dim Europe’s economic lights, Southeast Asia – fuelled by its nation-building infrastructure activity - could be the commercial catalyst that European corporates need. --------- If a spending deficit of US$1.2 trillion in six key Asian economies and a rising tide of protectionist rhetoric in Europe don’t seem the most promising combination of business prospects, think again. Add in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, and together they make a compelling case of the potential for a multi-year boom in investment and construction that will create entirely new economic ecosystems. Belt and Road at its most basic is a strategy to build the transport links and logistics capacity to boost the flow of trade between China and more than 65 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe to an estimated US$2.5 trillion annually in the co
By Stuart Tait, Group General Manager and Regional Head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific With protectionism threatening to dim Europe’s economic lights, Southeast Asia – fuelled by its nation-building infrastructure activity - could be the commercial catalyst that European corporates need. --------- If a spending deficit of US$1.2 trillion in six key Asian economies and a rising tide of protectionist rhetoric in Europe don’t seem the most promising combination of business prospects, think again. Add in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, and together they make a compelling case of the potential for a multi-year boom in investment and construction that will create entirely new economic ecosystems. Belt and Road at its most basic is a strategy to build the transport links and logistics capacity to boost the flow of trade between China and more than 65 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe to an estimated US$2.5 trillion annually in the co