全球化形勢重新佈局

2017年09月12日

Professor Yan Houmin, Dean of the City University of Hong Kong Business School, Professor Yan Houmin, Dean of the City University Business School,

analyzes the development strategy of China's "one by one" development strategy. By using the "government and social capital cooperation" model, To promote exchanges and cooperation between Europe and Asia, China is how to express the image of the global free trade defender appeared in the international arena.

The current global situation is bound to change, re-layout. Britain's departure from Europe, and Trump became the new president of the United States, all marked in the past two hundred years to hold high the banner of free trade, the two countries have changed their minds, protectionism will replace free trade, The slogan. In the new era of globalization, another teaching accident is to defend the free trade torch orthogonal to the hands of China.

Europe is in a changing situation. The four major freedoms of the EU - the four free flows of goods, services, capital and people - are too much for the British people. On this European continent, the degree of economic development between countries is different, the fourth of the four freedoms, that is, the reality of the opening of the border, was eventually rejected by Britain in a very shocking European referendum, and the people of other countries in Europe Will not follow the example of the United Kingdom, still have to wait and see the results of the European countries this year's election.

Walls vs open markets

on the other side of the Atlantic, President Trump to "America Priority". As a symbol of the new protectionist ideology, the border fence is being built. Peter Navarro was appointed to lead the White House National Trade Commission, his strategy is to re-examine all the existing trade agreements, and will be abolished to be abolished. This means that the United States will say no to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), at least to reopen North American free trade agreement negotiations. On the other side, at the Davos Economic Forum held in January, President Xi Jinping favored the benefits of globalization and market opening. China's "OBOR" development strategy, as in the chaos of the United States in the United Kingdom and in the face of "America's priority", seems to have become a global free trade breakwater.

First trip from China to the British freight train

Seamless logistics is the core of free trade. In January 2017, British Prime Minister Vincent Chance for the British cut off the final sound, the next day London will usher in the first trip from China to the British freight train. The train lasted 18 days and walked over 12,000 kilometers, passing through two tracks, via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium and France, and finally through the British Strait into the UK, bringing 34 containers , Worth four million pounds of clothing, and vividly confirms the "one way" has been extended to the British and European metropolis of the heart. Directly connected to China and Europe, there are 14 railway lines, this route is only one of them. The core of

mutual benefit and win-win situation

is the national development strategy aiming at advocating Eurasian interconnection and cooperation. In the "Development and Construction of the Silk Road Economic Zone and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Vision and Action" published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in March 2015, the language used was The protective tone of the mouth is completely different. This initiative emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit, the pursuit of mutual cooperation between the "interests of the point" and "the largest common sense", so as to give full play to the wisdom and creativity of the parties, strengths and potential. According to Beijing, this is a classic mutually beneficial win-win situation. "Bring all the way" to nurture collaboration, to play in the country in technology, management and resources, and other advantages. All in all, the vision of "going all the way" is to reform the production structure. China's high-quality services and resources will flow along the "one way" to countries, to promote the supply side of the structural reform (supply-side structural reform), for the benefit of all parties.

Government and private capital cooperation

The driving force behind the new Silk Road comes from the tried and tested government and private capital cooperation (PPP) model, which is found in large-scale projects mostly in PPP mode. According to a statement issued jointly by the Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission in December 2016, PPP infrastructure projects that have been established for at least two years can be financed through the issuance of asset-backed securities. In view of the domestic has more than 10,000 PPP projects, the total investment of more than 1.85 trillion US dollars, the government and private capital cooperation model is bound to soon in the new Silk Road in the future play a major role. 

There are several main reasons for choosing a PPP mode. First, PPP is an excellent carrier for fund and management of large infrastructure projects. Its transparent bidding mechanism will help to screen the "one area" project, and there are a variety of specific forms of implementation, such as BOT (Build-operate-transfer, Operation - transfer) or franchise, etc., depending on the needs of different projects. Second, risk management is another area where PPP is a great advantage. Because the government is more adept at risk management in law, private capital is superior to financial risk and operational risk management, both of which are complementary. The last point is that since the project is a long-term project, the project cycle is generally 20 to 30 years, and the role of the government as a guarantor is very important to the success of the project.

From the diversification of line changes

As North America, the Pacific region and the United Kingdom are faced with many uncertainties, and there is a tendency to shift to protectionism, so that China as the core of the "one way" has become a major growth point of international trade The China is taking advantage of its strengths to promote "all the way", in fact, many of the fastest growing countries in GDP are located in the "one side" corridor, and China is precisely the largest trading partner of these countries. In addition, the "end of the way" of the European end area is also an important growth point, which is the direct freight train to play a role in the place.  

However, this is by no means purely a variation of the traditional supply chain system that demonstrates "Oriental production, Western consumption". Recent financial technologies, innovative logistics systems, multi-channel marketing applications, and ubiquitous e-commerce have led to more fragmentation and diversification in the process of production marketing. Whether it is production, or consumption are moving towards globalization, which is a diversified trend by line.

Loss of manufacturing, really bring losses? 

As part of this process, many countries along the old Silk Road are struggling to self-elevate and hope to become a major producer. In the case of Bangladesh, which is a leader in manufacturing in South Asia, for example, over the past six years, its annual GDP has grown by more than 6%, and as many as 160 million nationals have enjoyed the benefits of strong economic growth. A large number of garment factories from China to the local migration to the protectionist thinking, it will be regarded as a threat to the current manufacturing power. But is China really suffering it?  

As the world's largest importer of textile raw materials, China has a highly automated textile processing industry, and its production capacity is more oversupply situation. The transfer of the manufacturing sector to Bangladesh has actually benefited China's textile exports. China to release excess capacity to accelerate the transformation of the manufacturing industry towards high value-added industries. From the perspective of the classic supply chain, moving the manufacturing process to a low-cost country can improve the efficiency of the entire supply chain. At the same time, "infrastructure along the way" infrastructure investment will help reduce logistics and trade costs, promote industrial transformation and upgrading.

How should Marshall plan

understand how we should understand "the way around" the Marshall Plan of the United States in 1946 and the two EU projects in the 2014 European Union? For the second world war after the Marshall plan, the views of mixed views. Some people think that the United States has played a philanthropist role, to help withstand the war ravaged Europe to stand firm footsteps. Some people think that this is only an expedient measure, is to create a market for the United States, because the plan is only the original factory from the production of military supplies to civilian production only. Of course, there are political considerations, that is, in the Iron Curtain will be enveloped in Europe, the Soviet Union's expansion of the threat of imminent time, the establishment of a Western democratic camp. Marshall plans to strengthen the leadership of the United States by providing financial, technical and institutional support, and at the same time to establish a number of international systems and systems, and has been in use ever since. This plan sets an example for strengthening European cooperation, and was later regarded as a standard by the European Union, until today, its influence still exists.

Juncker plan

The introduction of the plan in 2014, the background is very different. This is a large-scale infrastructure investment program designed to release government capital and private capital as a long-term investment in the "real economy". After seven years of economic stagnation, the plan hopes to invest in energy and transport infrastructure, as well as other social welfare industries, to promote the European economy. From the current situation, the plan seems to have achieved positive results: a strategic investment in the real economy of the European Foundation has been set up, the first 18 months has accumulated 348.3 billion euros of new investment into 27 member countries. As for the medium-term role is still not conclusive, Europe has not yet out of the crisis. Greece and Spain, the youth unemployment rate hit a record high, a large number of Syria and African refugees difficult to integrate into society, the European multiculturalism have a severe impact. Looking forward to the future, the stagnant European economy and the rapid rise of nationalist political parties, coupled with rampant trade protectionism, threatens the unity of the region.

Along the way

"along the way" with the difference that the former is not the Marshall Plan proposed for the crisis. Of course, the Chinese economy has slowed down after 2009, and the "one-way" initiative can be seen as a move to revive China's state-owned enterprises. "Together" is common to the first two programs in its ambitious and extensive coverage, covering more than 60 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe, including many developing countries with different economic environments. China has set up Silk Road Funds and Asian Investment Banks to encourage private companies to invest in policies, trade, finance, capital and infrastructure projects, thus connecting the multinationals. The new Silk Road aims to expand the regional economy to create a win-win situation.

The long-term PPP protocol

"One Way" comes from the long-term PPP agreement between the government and the private sector to provide public services and infrastructure development. Both sides share the responsibility and return. Generally financed by private companies specializing in analysis, innovation, operations and risk control. In addition, long-term PPP operating contracts can also solve the problem of inadequate public infrastructure maintenance for the government.

The results achieved by PPP are impressive. So far, the Ministry of Finance has approved 232 demonstration projects, with a total investment of 802.54 billion yuan yuan. There are 9285 items declared, with a total investment of 10.6 trillion yuan. Overall, the participation of private capital projects is about 40%.

Hong

Kong will be able to play an important role in Hong Kong in view of the nature of the aforesaid PPP. Hong Kong has a proven financial and legal system, coupled with a mature logistics and retail services sector, providing a wide range of platforms such as excellence in financing, legal advice, logistics and logistics to support PPP projects. In partnership with the more backward countries, Hong Kong can share the role of "leading the way". In addition, the City University Business School will also play a key role in the new public transport logistics PPP International Center for Excellence will develop "one by one" research projects, international policy briefs, share PPP best practices, and public transport International standards for PPP in the field of logistics.

Trading wheel

Some people say, a history of the Jews is equal to half of the history of Western civilization, a history equal to half of Henan Chinese history, a history of the Silk Road is equal to half of the global integration of history. However, the Silk Road is not limited to history. The new chapter is being written in this fragmented world, "one way along the way" initiative, infrastructure, trade, finance and capital, lubricating the world trade wheel forward. The "One Way" program, which runs counter to the trend of the North Atlantic protectionism, and the growing drive and support of the Chinese economy, will certainly make a key contribution to global economic growth. The world's global situation is about to re-layout, China and the Silk Road country will be to ensure that the wheel of business continued to run the key axis.

The original text is published in the CityU business school "CITY BUSINESS Magazine (2017 spring)", please click here to read the original .

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